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Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies

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  • Don Bredin
  • Stuart Hyde

Abstract

"We examine the influence of US, UK and German macroeconomic and financial variables on the stock returns of two relatively small, open European economies, Ireland and Denmark. Within a nonlinear framework, we allow for time variation via regime switching using a smooth transition regression (STR) model. We find that US (global) and UK and German (regional) stock returns are significant determinants of returns in both markets. Further, global information represented by oil and US asset price movements drive changes between states in each market. Significantly, the role of country-specific domestic variables is typically confined to a single state while global and regional variables pervade all states." Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-346.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:315-346
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2014. "Does the Macroeconomy Predict UK Asset Returns in a Nonlinear Fashion? Comprehensive Out-of-Sample Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(4), pages 510-535, August.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Lof, Matthijs, 2010. "Heterogeneity in Stock Pricing: A STAR Model with Multivariate Transition Functions," MPRA Paper 30520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2009. "What tames the Celtic Tiger? Portfolio implications from a Multivariate Markov Switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 463-488.
    5. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2009. "Benchmark bonds interactions under regime shifts," Working Papers 103, Bank of Greece.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
    7. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-varying conditional correlations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 96, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    8. Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
    9. repec:eee:phsmap:v:490:y:2018:i:c:p:1211-1227 is not listed on IDEAS

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