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Non-Linear Predictability of Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Non-Parametric and Threshold Models

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  • David McMillan

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  • David McMillan, 2001. "Non-Linear Predictability of Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Non-Parametric and Threshold Models," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 200102, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:wpecon:0102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 323-351.
    3. Segerstrom, Paul S, 2000. "The Long-Run Growth Effects of R&D Subsidies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 277-305, September.
    4. Crafts, Nicholas, 1999. "Implications of Financial Crisis for East Asian Trend Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 110-131, Autumn.
    5. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Economics Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    6. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
    7. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1997. "Endogenous Growth Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011662, January.
    9. Carl Davidson & Paul Segerstrom, 1998. "R&D Subsidies and Economic Growth," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, pages 548-577.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, pages 95-111.
    2. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
    3. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    4. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
    5. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2014. "Does the Macroeconomy Predict UK Asset Returns in a Nonlinear Fashion? Comprehensive Out-of-Sample Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 510-535.
    6. David McMillan, 2004. "Non-linear predictability of UK stock market returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Switzer, Lorne N. & Picard, Alan, 2016. "Stock market liquidity and economic cycles: A non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 106-119.
    8. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 115-126.
    9. Knight John & Satchell Stephen, 2011. "Some New Results for Threshold AR(1) Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, pages 1-42.
    10. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    11. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2008. "Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations," Working Papers 2072/8950, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    12. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    13. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in international stock market returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-91.
    14. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-varying conditional correlations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 96, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    15. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    16. Michael Scholz & Jens Perch Nielsen & Stefan Sperlich, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns guided by prior knowledge," Graz Economics Papers 2012-02, University of Graz, Department of Economics.

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