IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhb/aarbfi/2004-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decomposing European bond and equity volatility

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The paper investigates volatility spillover from US and aggregate European asset markets into European national asset markets. A main contribution is that bond and equity volatilities are analyzed simultaneously. A new model belonging to the 'volatilityspillover' family is suggested: The conditional variance of e.g. the unexpected German stock return is divided into separate effects from the contemporaneous idiosyncratic variance of US bonds, US stocks, European bonds, European stocks, German bonds, and German stocks. Significant volatility-spillover effects are found. The national bond (stock) volatilities are mainly influenced by bond (stock) effects. Global, regional, and local volatility effects are all important. The introduction of the euro is associated with a structural break.

Suggested Citation

  • Christiansen, Charlotte, 2005. "Decomposing European bond and equity volatility," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2004-01, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2004-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hha.dk/afl/wp/fin/F_2004_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    2. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
    3. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    4. Hausman, J. A. & Newey, W. K. & Powell, J. L., 1995. "Nonlinear errors in variables Estimation of some Engel curves," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 205-233.
    5. Ilmanen, Antti, 1995. " Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-506, June.
    6. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2003. "Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 383-399, October.
    7. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    8. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    9. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    10. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 161-194, March.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    12. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
    13. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(02), pages 373-401, June.
    15. Scruggs, John T. & Glabadanidis, Paskalis, 2003. "Risk Premia and the Dynamic Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 295-316, June.
    16. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    17. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    18. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    19. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    20. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    21. Philipp Hartmann & Angela Maddaloni & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Euro-area Financial System: Structure, Integration, and Policy Initiatives," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 180-213.
    22. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    23. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    24. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    25. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    26. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility-Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948.
    27. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003. "Volatility-Spillover E ffects in European Bond Markets," Finance Working Papers 03-8, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    28. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    30. Christensen, Kim & Podolskij, Mark, 2007. "Realized range-based estimation of integrated variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 323-349, December.
    31. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    32. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    33. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-346.
    2. T. Berger & L. Pozzi, 2011. "A new model-based approach to measuring time-varying financial market integration," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/714, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Christos Savva & Denise R Osborn & Len Gill, 2005. "Volatility, spillover Effects and Correlations in US and Major European Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Perego, Erica R. & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2016. "Macro-economic determinants of European stock and government bond correlations: A tale of two regions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 214-232.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "News Implied Volatility and the Stock-Bond Nexus: Evidence from Historical Data for the USA and the UK Markets," Working Papers 201730, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Sugimoto, Kimiko & Matsuki, Takashi & Yoshida, Yushi, 2014. "The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 201-233.
    8. repec:eee:reveco:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:25-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Asgharian, Hossein & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Risk contagion among international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 22-38, February.
    10. Jian Zhang & Dongxiang Zhang & Juan Wang & Yue Zhang, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers between Equity and Bond Markets: Evidence from G7 and BRICS," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, pages 205-217.
    11. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2005. "Bond Market and Stock Market Integration in Europe," DNB Working Papers 060, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Berger, Tino & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2013. "Measuring time-varying financial market integration: An unobserved components approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 463-473.
    13. Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "Stock and Bond Relationships in Asia," Working Paper Series 2010-14, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
    14. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2009. "Bond market and stock market integration in Europe: a smooth transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(24), pages 3067-3080.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Asset Markets; GARCH; International Finance; Volatility Spillover;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2004-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helle Vinbaek Stenholt). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ifhhadk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.