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Decomposing European bond and equity volatility

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Abstract

The paper investigates volatility spillover from US and aggregate European asset markets into European national asset markets. A main contribution is that bond and equity volatilities are analyzed simultaneously. A new model belonging to the 'volatilityspillover' family is suggested: The conditional variance of e.g. the unexpected German stock return is divided into separate effects from the contemporaneous idiosyncratic variance of US bonds, US stocks, European bonds, European stocks, German bonds, and German stocks. Significant volatility-spillover effects are found. The national bond (stock) volatilities are mainly influenced by bond (stock) effects. Global, regional, and local volatility effects are all important. The introduction of the euro is associated with a structural break.

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  • Christiansen, Charlotte, 2005. "Decomposing European bond and equity volatility," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2004-01, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2004-01
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    3. T. Berger & L. Pozzi, 2011. "A new model-based approach to measuring time-varying financial market integration," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/714, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Christos Savva & Denise R Osborn & Len Gill, 2005. "Volatility, spillover Effects and Correlations in US and Major European Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Perego, Erica R. & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2016. "Macro-economic determinants of European stock and government bond correlations: A tale of two regions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-232.
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
    7. Diana Tunaru & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "Not everyone is a follower: The behaviour of interest rate and equity markets within major economies relative to the United States," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2335-2350, April.
    8. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Sugimoto, Kimiko & Matsuki, Takashi & Yoshida, Yushi, 2014. "The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 201-233.
    10. Mustafa Demirel & Gazanfer Unal, 2020. "Applying multivariate-fractionally integrated volatility analysis on emerging market bond portfolios," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    11. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2018. "Co-movement between equity and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 25-38.
    12. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2021. "Examining the effects of news and media sentiments on volatility and correlation: Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 280-297.
    13. Asgharian, Hossein & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Risk contagion among international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 22-38, February.
    14. Jovan Njegic & Milica Stankovic & Dejan Živkov, 2019. "What Wavelet-Based Quantiles Can Suggest about the Stocks-Bond Interaction in the Emerging East Asian Economies?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 95-119, February.
    15. Jian Zhang & Dongxiang Zhang & Juan Wang & Yue Zhang, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers between Equity and Bond Markets: Evidence from G7 and BRICS," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 205-217, December.
    16. Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    17. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2005. "Bond Market and Stock Market Integration in Europe," DNB Working Papers 060, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Berger, Tino & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2013. "Measuring time-varying financial market integration: An unobserved components approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 463-473.
    19. Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "Stock and Bond Relationships in Asia," Working Paper Series 2010-14, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    20. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2009. "Bond market and stock market integration in Europe: a smooth transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(24), pages 3067-3080.
    21. Daehyeon Park & Jiyeon Park & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Volatility Spillovers between Equity and Green Bond Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Asset Markets; GARCH; International Finance; Volatility Spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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