South African Sector Return Correlations: using DCC and ADCC Multivariate GARCH techniques to uncover the underlying dynamics
This paper explores the dynamics of return co-movements between the largest economic sectors in South Africa, specifically with a view to shed light on the inter-sector diversification potential of domestic investors over time. It has been widely documented that investors have a home-bias when it comes to investing, and as such may be exposed to periods of increased co-movement between assets held locally across different sectors in their portfolios. Such periods of increased homogeneity in the movement of asset prices negate the benefits from diversification within the domestic financial market. The paper utilizes Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and Asymmetric-DCC Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MV-GARCH) techniques to isolate the time-varying conditional correlations from the conditional variance component. These series are then used to study whether changes in market conditions and overall sentiment influence the dynamics and aggregate level of co-movement between sectors. The results firstly suggest that using static measures of historic co-movement between asset returns across sectors in order to evaluate a portfolio’s diversification potential are inaccurate. Significant leverage effects are also found in the dynamics of co-movement between the sector pairs, with negative shocks being followed in all cases by higher aggregate levels of co-movement. The results also suggest that periods of heightened global- and domestic market uncertainty magnifies the co-movements between sectors and in so doing undermines the ability of investors to diversify across local sectors.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Private Bag X1, 7602 Matieland|
Fax: +27 (0)21-808 2409
Web page: https://www.ekon.sun.ac.za
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, "undated". "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Z. Chinzara & M.J. Aziakpono, 2009. "Dynamic Returns Linkages and Volatility Transmission between South African and World Major Stock Markets," Working Papers 146, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
- Cappiello, Lorenzo & Engle, Robert F. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2003. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns," Working Paper Series 204, European Central Bank.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to estimate various forms of DCC GARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00174, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew S. Duncan & Alain Kabundi, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers across South African Asset Classes during Domestic and Foreign," Working Papers 202, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 161-194, March.
- Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
- De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
- Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
- Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Stock Volatility And The Crash Of '87," Papers 89-01, Rochester, Business - General.
- G. William Schwert, 1989. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," NBER Working Papers 2954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher, Rachel & Kim, Suk-Joong & Wu, Eliza, 2012. "Do sovereign credit ratings influence regional stock and bond market interdependencies in emerging countries?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 1070-1089.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nl Samouilhan, 2006. "The Relationship Between International Equity Market Behaviour And The Jse," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 248-260, 06.
- Horvath Roman & Poldauf Petr, 2012. "International Stock Market Comovements: What Happened during the Financial Crisis?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, March.
- Horvath, Roman & Poldauf, Petr, 2011. "International stock market comovements: what happened during the financial crisis?," MPRA Paper 35317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
- Syriopoulos, Theodore & Roumpis, Efthimios, 2009. "Dynamic correlations and volatility effects in the Balkan equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 565-587, October.
- Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
- John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009. "Global and Regional Spillovers in Emerging Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH-in-mean Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2794, CESifo Group Munich.
- John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009. "Global and Regional Spillovers in Emerging Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 942, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Kate Phylaktis & Lichuan Xia, 2009. "Equity Market Comovement and Contagion: A Sectoral Perspective," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 381-409, 06.
- Bracker, Kevin & Docking, Diane Scott & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Hassan, Syed Aun & Malik, Farooq, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH modeling of sector volatility transmission," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 470-480, July.
- D. Collins & N. Biekpe, 2003. "Contagion And Interdependence In African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(1), pages 181-194, 03.
- Zivanemoyo Chinzara, 2011. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Conditional Stock Market Volatility In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 27-49, 03.
- Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
- Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1988. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
- Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Melt van Schoor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.