IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v86y2020icp133-147.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Niţoi, Mihai
  • Pochea, Maria Miruna

Abstract

In the light of the global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis, this paper investigates the dependence patterns in 24 European equity markets from January 5, 2004 to July 1, 2016. We further examine whether these stressful events trigger contagion. Given that investors tend to behave irrationally in turmoil periods, we add to the literature by studying the effect of investor sentiment on markets correlations. Our results reveal heterogeneity in the time-varying dependence and across markets. Contagion is confirmed in turbulent times, a spillover effect from periphery euro area being detected. We find that similar sentiments increase correlations, especially in crises, suggesting that investors’ perceptions are an important channel of moving markets in the same direction. Furthermore, negative sentiments, such as fear or pessimism, amplify the linkages between markets. Our results offer useful insights to policy makers for reacting timely to financial shocks and for designing a more integrated market.

Suggested Citation

  • Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2020. "Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-147.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:86:y:2020:i:c:p:133-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.06.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318312288
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.06.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca De Angelis & Attilio Gardini, 2015. "Disequilibria and Contagion in Financial Markets: Evidence from a New Test," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 247-265, November.
    2. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    3. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    4. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:12:p:3711-3751 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Dynamic Stock Market Integration Driven by the European Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 10, pages 305-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2008. "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1187-1222, May.
    7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    8. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    9. Jarno Kiviaho & Jussi Nikkinen & Vanja Piljak & Timo Rothovius, 2014. "The Co†movement Dynamics of European Frontier Stock Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 574-595, June.
    10. Gjika, Dritan & Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Stock market comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-64.
    11. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    12. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    13. Narayan, S. & Sriananthakumar, S. & Islam, S.Z., 2014. "Stock market integration of emerging Asian economies: Patterns and causes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-31.
    14. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    15. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    16. Virk, Nader & Javed, Farrukh, 2017. "European equity market integration and joint relationship of conditional volatility and correlations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 53-77.
    17. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    18. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    19. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2009. "Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 662-674, October.
    20. Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Jammazi, Rania & Assaf, Ata, 2017. "Uncovering frequency domain causality between gold and the stock markets of China and India: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 23-30.
    21. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2019. "Return spillovers around the globe: A network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 133-146.
    22. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
    23. Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-17.
    24. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    25. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    26. Balázs Égert & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Time-varying synchronization of European stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 393-407, April.
    27. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-193, July.
    28. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer, 2016. "Sovereign Credit Risk Co-Movements in the Eurozone: Simple Interdependence or Contagion?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 246-268, December.
    29. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of worldwide emerging and frontier markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 175-183.
    30. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Peng, Cheng, 2017. "Twitter's daily happiness sentiment and the predictability of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 58-64.
    31. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    32. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2011. "What Segments Equity Markets?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3841-3890.
    33. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    34. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    35. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-60.
    36. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2014. "Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 161-177.
    37. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
    38. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    39. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    40. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    41. Baur, Dirk G., 2012. "Financial contagion and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2680-2692.
    42. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Extreme coexceedances in new EU member states' stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1048-1057, June.
    43. Frijns, Bart & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2017. "Excess stock return comovements and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-87.
    44. Colacito, Riccardo & Engle, Robert F. & Ghysels, Eric, 2011. "A component model for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 45-59, September.
    45. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    46. Yue Peng & Wing Ng, 2012. "Analysing financial contagion and asymmetric market dependence with volatility indices via copulas," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 49-74, February.
    47. Samitas, Aristeidis & Tsakalos, Ioannis, 2013. "How can a small country affect the European economy? The Greek contagion phenomenon," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 18-32.
    48. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
    49. Bracker, Kevin & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of the correlation structure across international equity markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 443-471.
    50. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2013. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 777-795, August.
    51. Butler, K. C. & Joaquin, D. C., 2002. "Are the gains from international portfolio diversification exaggerated? The influence of downside risk in bear markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 981-1011, December.
    52. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    53. Mobarek, Asma & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Mollah, Sabur & Hou, Ai Jun, 2016. "Determinants of time varying co-movements among international stock markets during crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.
    54. Flavin, Thomas J & Hurley, Margaret J & Rousseau, Fabrice, 2002. "Explaining Stock Market Correlation: A Gravity Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(0), pages 87-106, Supplemen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oussama Tilfani & Paulo Ferreira & Andreia Dionisio & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2020. "EU Stock Markets vs. Germany, UK and US: Analysis of Dynamic Comovements Using Time-Varying DCCA Correlation Coefficients," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Liu, Xueyong & Chen, Zhihua & Chen, Zhensong & Yao, Yinhong, 2022. "The time-varying spillover effect of China’s stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    3. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Impact of financial instability on international crude oil volatility: New sight from a regime-switching framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Garfatta, Riadh & Lakhal, Faten & Zorgati, Imen, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Robles, Maria-Dolores, 2021. "Bank credit risk events and peers' equity value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Florin Teodor Boldeanu & José Antonio Clemente-Almendros & Ileana Tache & Luis Alberto Seguí-Amortegui, 2022. "Is ESG Relevant to Electricity Companies during Pandemics? A Case Study on European Firms during COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    7. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2022. "Debt and financial market contagion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1648, April.
    8. Foglia, Matteo & Addi, Abdelhamid & Angelini, Eliana, 2022. "The Eurozone banking sector in the time of COVID-19: Measuring volatility connectedness," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Nikita Ramchandani & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2021. "Diagnosis and Prediction of IIGPS’ Countries Bubble Crashes during BREXIT," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Foglia, Matteo & Doukas, John A., 2022. "COVID-19 and Tail-event Driven Network Risk in the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Yuan, Ying & Wang, Haiying & Jin, Xiu, 2022. "Pandemic-driven financial contagion and investor behavior: Evidence from the COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Wang, Haiying & Yuan, Ying & Li, Yiou & Wang, Xunhong, 2021. "Financial contagion and contagion channels in the forex market: A new approach via the dynamic mixture copula-extreme value theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-414.
    13. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Xin-Zhou Qi & Zhong Ning & Meng Qin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 779-799, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2019. "What drives European Union stock market co-movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 57-69.
    2. Simona Moagăr-Poladian & Dorina Clichici & Cristian-Valeriu Stanciu, 2019. "The Comovement of Exchange Rates and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.
    4. Michael A. Goldstein & Joseph McCarthy & Alexei G. Orlov, 2019. "The Core, Periphery, and Beyond: Stock Market Comovements among EU and Non‐EU Countries," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 5-56, February.
    5. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    7. Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
    8. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2017. "Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 368-380.
    9. Chen, Peng, 2018. "Understanding international stock market comovements: A comparison of developed and emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 451-464.
    10. Aladesanmi, Olalekan & Casalin, Fabrizio & Metcalf, Hugh, 2019. "Stock market integration between the UK and the US: Evidence over eight decades," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 32-43.
    11. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
    12. Cai, Charlie X. & Mobarek, Asma & Zhang, Qi, 2017. "International stock market leadership and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 150-162.
    13. Mobarek, Asma & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Mollah, Sabur & Hou, Ai Jun, 2016. "Determinants of time varying co-movements among international stock markets during crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Continuous wavelet transform and rolling correlation of European stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 237-256.
    15. Sewraj, Deeya & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2018. "Identifying contagion: A unifying approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-240.
    16. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2016. "International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-163.
    17. Chia-Hao Lee & Pei-I Chou, 2012. "Trading Activity and Financial Market Integration," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 589-616, August.
    18. Chen, Yanhua & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2022. "Short-run disequilibrium adjustment and long-run equilibrium in the international stock markets: A network-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    20. Ana Escribano & Cristina Íñiguez, 2021. "The contagion phenomena of the Brexit process on main stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4462-4481, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity market correlations; Contagion; Crisis; Investor sentiment; Generalized autoregressive score dynamic copula model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:86:y:2020:i:c:p:133-147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.