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Risk contagion among international stock markets

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  • Asgharian, Hossein
  • Nossman, Marcus

Abstract

We develop a stochastic volatility model with jumps in returns and volatility to analyze the risk spillover from the U.S. market and the regional market to a number of European countries' equity markets. The key advantage of this approach compared to the earlier approaches is that it enables us to identify jumps and investigate spillover of extreme events across borders. We find that a large part of the jumps in the local markets are due to the U.S. market and the regional market. The U.S. contribution to the variances is in general below the contribution from the regional market. In general, we observe an increasing integration during the last two decades, which, to some extent, can be related to the advancement of the European Union. Furthermore, we show that the identification of the jumps can be used as a useful signal for portfolio reallocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Asgharian, Hossein & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Risk contagion among international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 22-38, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:1:p:22-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. el Alaoui, Abdelkader O. & Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Azhar Rosly, Saiful & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Linkages and co-movement between international stock market returns: Case of Dow Jones Islamic Dubai Financial Market index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 53-70.
    2. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    3. Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Alexandros G. & Menla Ali, Faek & Karoglou, Michail & Yfanti, Stavroula, 2014. "Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises: A time varying coefficient approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 113-128.
    4. Brière, Marie & Chapelle, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1729-1744.
    5. Daniel Kapp, 2012. "The optimal size of the European Stability Mechanism: A cost-benefit analysis," DNB Working Papers 349, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "Contagion and interdependence across Asia-Pacific equity markets: An analysis based on multi-horizon discrete and continuous wavelet transformations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 363-377.
    7. Elyas Elyasiani & Elena Kalotychou & Sotiris Staikouras & Gang Zhao, 2015. "Return and Volatility Spillover among Banks and Insurers: Evidence from Pre-Crisis and Crisis Periods," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 21-52, August.
    8. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:494-510 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Anagnostidis, P. & Varsakelis, C. & Emmanouilides, C.J., 2016. "Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 116-128.
    10. Tabak, Benjamin M. & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo & da Silva Medeiros, Maurício, 2016. "Contagion in CDS, banking and equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 120-134.
    11. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.
    12. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Masih, Rumi & Masih, Mansur & Alhabshi, Syed Othman, 2014. "Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 553-571.
    13. Berger, Dave & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "Market fragility and international market crashes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 565-580.
    14. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    15. Bartosz Gębka & Dobromił Serwa, 2012. "Liquidity needs, private information, feedback trading: verifying motives to trade," NBP Working Papers 119, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Milcheva, Stanimira & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 148-171.
    17. Jawadi, Fredj & Louhichi, Waël & Idi Cheffou, Abdoulkarim, 2015. "Testing and modeling jump contagion across international stock markets: A nonparametric intraday approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 64-84.
    18. Liu, Lu, 2014. "Extreme downside risk spillover from the United States and Japan to Asia-Pacific stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 39-48.
    19. Vyrost, Tomas & Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyocsa, Stefan, 2013. "What Drives the Stock Market Integration in the CEE-3?," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 67-81.
    20. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kaen, Fred R. & Kurmann, Philipp & Zimmermann, Jan, 2012. "The listing and delisting of German firms on NYSE and NASDAQ: Were there any benefits?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 1024-1053.
    21. Gębka, Bartosz & Serwa, Dobromił, 2015. "The elusive nature of motives to trade: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 147-157.
    22. Gębka, Bartosz & Karoglou, Michail, 2013. "Have the GIPSI settled down? Breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for, and not against, the European financial integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3639-3653.
    23. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.

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