IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v126y2019icp76-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drivers of electricity price dynamics: Comparative analysis of spot and futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mosquera-López, Stephanía
  • Nursimulu, Anjali

Abstract

Against the backdrop of numerous evidence that variable renewable generation decreases electricity prices and increases price volatility, this paper assesses the drivers of electricity prices in spot and futures markets, focusing on the German electricity markets. We take into account nonlinearities in electricity prices by means of structural breaks and threshold regressions. We find that short-run and medium/long-run price drivers differ and, more importantly, that they vary over time. In the case of the spot market, the determinants of prices are renewable infeed and electricity demand, while in the futures market the main drivers are natural gas, coal and carbon prices. Our results give relevant insights for market participants who seek to optimize procurement/selling strategies in the spot market, and use the futures market to hedge against spot price volatility, which has increased due to a higher renewable generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Nursimulu, Anjali, 2019. "Drivers of electricity price dynamics: Comparative analysis of spot and futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 76-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:76-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518307432
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Cludius, Johanna & Hermann, Hauke & Matthes, Felix Chr. & Graichen, Verena, 2014. "The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008–2016: Estimation and distributional implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 302-313.
    5. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    6. Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo & Brinkman, Greg & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2016. "The impact of wind power on electricity prices," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 474-487.
    7. Paschen, Marius, 2016. "Dynamic analysis of the German day-ahead electricity spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 118-128.
    8. Zipp, Alexander, 2017. "The marketability of variable renewable energy in liberalized electricity markets – An empirical analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1111-1121.
    9. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Vaid, Devina, 2016. "Lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar: empirical results for Massachusetts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 345-352.
    10. repec:bla:jecsur:v:13:y:1999:i:5:p:551-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gullì, Francesco & Balbo, Antonio Lo, 2015. "The impact of intermittently renewable energy on Italian wholesale electricity prices: Additional benefits or additional costs?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 123-137.
    12. repec:bla:jecsur:v:13:y:1999:i:5:p:505-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    14. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 550-560.
    15. Forrest, Sam & MacGill, Iain, 2013. "Assessing the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices and generator dispatch in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 120-132.
    16. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego Fernando, 2017. "Nonlinear empirical pricing in electricity markets using fundamental weather factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 594-605.
    17. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    18. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
    19. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    20. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    21. Ballester, Cristina & Furió, Dolores, 2015. "Effects of renewables on the stylized facts of electricity prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1596-1609.
    22. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    23. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    24. Gelabert, Liliana & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2011. "An ex-post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on Spanish electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 59-65.
    25. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    26. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    27. Rintamäki, Tuomas & Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Salo, Ahti, 2017. "Does renewable energy generation decrease the volatility of electricity prices? An analysis of Denmark and Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 270-282.
    28. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2017. "An analysis of the decline of electricity spot prices in Europe: Who is to blame?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Aparna & Palepu, Sai, 2024. "Designing risk-free service for renewable wind and solar resources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 715-728.
    2. Qiang Chen & Anush Balian & Mykola Kyzym & Tetiana Salashenko & Inna Gryshova & Viktoriia Khaustova, 2021. "Electricity Markets Instability: Causes of Price Dispersion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Changing Electricity Markets: Quantifying the Price Effects of Greening the Energy Matrix," Papers 2208.14650, arXiv.org.
    4. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Tang, Ou & Sahamkhadam, Maziar & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yahya, Muhammad & Cerin, Pontus & Rehme, Jakob, 2021. "Analysis of Forecasting Models in an Electricity Market under Volatility," ADBI Working Papers 1212, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Andr s Oviedo-G mez & Sandra Milena Londo o-Hern ndez & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque, 2021. "Electricity Price Fundamentals in Hydrothermal Power Generation Markets Using Machine Learning and Quantile Regression Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 66-77.
    7. Georg Wolff & Stefan Feuerriegel, 2019. "Emissions Trading System of the European Union: Emission Allowances and EPEX Electricity Prices in Phase III," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Uribe, Jorge M. & Mosquera-López, Stephania & Arenas, Oscar J., 2022. "Assessing the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices in European markets in times of distress," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Donglan Liu & Xin Liu & Kun Guo & Qiang Ji & Yingxian Chang, 2023. "Spillover Effects among Electricity Prices, Traditional Energy Prices and Carbon Market under Climate Risk," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Wang, Yong & Liu, Shimiao & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Volatility spillover and hedging strategies among Chinese carbon, energy, and electricity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Rinne, Sonja, 2024. "Estimating the merit-order effect using coarsened exact matching: Reconciling theory with the empirical results to improve policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    12. Dorotić, Hrvoje & Ban, Marko & Pukšec, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2020. "Impact of wind penetration in electricity markets on optimal power-to-heat capacities in a local district heating system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Viktor Koval & Viktoriia Khaustova & Stella Lippolis & Olha Ilyash & Tetiana Salashenko & Piotr Olczak, 2023. "Fundamental Shifts in the EU’s Electric Power Sector Development: LMDI Decomposition Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-22, July.
    14. Shimomura, Mizue & Keeley, Alexander Ryota & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi & Tanaka, Kenta & Managi, Shunsuke, 2024. "Beyond the merit order effect: Impact of the rapid expansion of renewable energy on electricity market price," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    15. Tiantian Liu & Xie He & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Influence of Fluctuations in Fossil Fuel Commodities on Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot and Futures Markets in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    16. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Mosquera-López, Stephania & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Pricing the risk due to weather conditions in small variable renewable energy projects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    18. Angelo Maiorino & Adrián Mota-Babiloni & Manuel Gesù Del Duca & Ciro Aprea, 2021. "Scheduling Optimization of a Cabinet Refrigerator Incorporating a Phase Change Material to Reduce Its Indirect Environmental Impact," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    19. Diankai Wang & Inna Gryshova & Mykola Kyzym & Tetiana Salashenko & Viktoriia Khaustova & Maryna Shcherbata, 2022. "Electricity Price Instability over Time: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    20. Tomasz Rokicki & Piotr Bórawski & Barbara Gradziuk & Piotr Gradziuk & Aldona Mrówczyńska-Kamińska & Joanna Kozak & Danuta Jolanta Guzal-Dec & Kamil Wojtczuk, 2021. "Differentiation and Changes of Household Electricity Prices in EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    21. Ciarreta, Aitor & Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina & Zarraga, Ainhoa, 2020. "Renewable energy regulation and structural breaks: An empirical analysis of Spanish electricity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    22. Ifeacho Christopher I & Choga Ireen, 2023. "Analysis of the Nature and Determinants of Energy Price Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 33(2), pages 27-48, June.
    23. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    24. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2020. "Driving Fundamentals of Natural Gas Price in Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 318-324.
    25. Shao, Zhen & Yang, Yudie & Zheng, Qingru & Zhou, Kaile & Liu, Chen & Yang, Shanlin, 2022. "A pattern classification methodology for interval forecasts of short-term electricity prices based on hybrid deep neural networks: A comparative analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    2. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    3. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2021. "The Merit-Order Effect on the Swedish bidding zone with the highest electricity flow in the Elspot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Konstandatos, Otto & Rai, Alan, 2021. "Wind generation and the dynamics of electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Rinne, Sonja, 2024. "Estimating the merit-order effect using coarsened exact matching: Reconciling theory with the empirical results to improve policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2020. "The impact of the integration of renewable energy sources in the electricity price formation: is the Merit-Order Effect occurring in Portugal?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    8. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Nibedita, Barsha & Irfan, Mohd, 2022. "Analyzing the asymmetric impacts of renewables on wholesale electricity price: Empirical evidence from the Indian electricity market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 538-551.
    10. Kolb, Sebastian & Dillig, Marius & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Karl, Jürgen, 2020. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany - An update for the years 2014–2018," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    12. Shao, Jing & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Jinke & Liu, Guy, 2022. "An evaluation of the consumer-funded renewable obligation scheme in the UK for wind power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2022. "The role of electricity flows and renewable electricity production in the behaviour of electricity prices in Spain," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 885-900.
    14. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2020. "Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability – A quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Schöniger, Franziska & Morawetz, Ulrich B., 2022. "What comes down must go up: Why fluctuating renewable energy does not necessarily increase electricity spot price variance in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    16. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Javier L'opez Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2020. "The Economics of Variable Renewables and Electricity Storage," Papers 2012.15371, arXiv.org.
    18. Sánchez de la Nieta, A.A. & Contreras, J., 2020. "Quantifying the effect of renewable generation on day–ahead electricity market prices: The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2019. "The “Merit-order effect” of wind and solar power: Volatility and determinants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 54-62.
    20. Prata, Ricardo & Carvalho, Pedro M.S. & Azevedo, Inês L., 2018. "Distributional costs of wind energy production in Portugal under the liberalized Iberian market regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 500-512.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:76-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.