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Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability - a Quantile Regression approach

Author

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  • Katarzyna Maciejowska

Abstract

The literature on renewable energy sources indicates that an increase of the intermittent wind and solar generation affects significantly the distribution of electricity prices. In this article, the influence of two types of renewable energy sources (wind and solar photo voltaic) on the level and variability of German electricity spot prices is analyzed. The quantile regression models are built to estimate the merit order effect for different quantiles of electricity prices. The results indicate that both types of renewable generations have a similar, negative impact on the price level, approximated by the price median. When the price volatility, measured by the inter-quantile range (IQR), is considered, the outcomes show that wind and solar influence prices differently. Conditional on the level of the total demand, the wind generation would either increase (when the demand is low) or decrease (when the demand is high) the IQR. Meanwhile, the increase of solar power stabilizes the price variance for moderate demand level. Thus, policy supporting the development and integration of RES should search for a balance between the wind and solar power.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2019. "Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability - a Quantile Regression approach," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1902
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    File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_19_02.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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