Indian Capital Control Liberalization : Evidence from NDF Markets
The Indian government has taken a number of incremental measures to liberalise legal and administrative impediments to international capital movements in recent years. This paper analyses the extent to which the effectiveness of capital controls in India, measured by the domestic less net foreign interest rate differential (deviations from covered interest rate parity) have changed over time. We utilise the 3-month offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to measure the effective foreign interest rate (implied NDF yield). Using the self exciting threshold autoregression (SETAR) methodology, we estimate a no-arbitrage bandwidth whose boundaries are determined by transactions costs and capital controls. Inside of the bands, small deviations from CIP follow a random walk process. Outside the bands, profitable arbitrage opportunities exist and we estimate an adjustment process back towards the boundaries. We allow for asymmetric boundaries and asymmetric speeds of adjustment (above and below the band thresholds), which may vary depending on how arbitrage activity is constrained by capital controls. We test for structural breaks, identify three distinct periods, and estimate these parameters over each sub-sample in order to capture the de facto effect of changes in capital controls over time. We find that de facto capital control barriers : (1) are asymmetric over inflows and outflows, (2) have changed over time from primarily restricting outflows to effectively restricting inflows (measured by bandwidths and positions); (3) arbitrage activity closes deviations from CIP when the threshold boundaries are exceeded in all sub-samples. In recent years, capital controls have been more symmetric over capital inflows and outflows and the deviations from CIP outside the boundaries are closed more quickly.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998.
"Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models,"
Cahiers de recherche
9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik, 2007.
"India's Experience with Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest for a Sustainable Current Account Deficit,"
in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 609-644
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik, 2005. "India's Experience with Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest for a Sustainable Current Account Deficit," NBER Working Papers 11387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1997.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
365, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April.
- Pasricha, Gurnain, 2007.
"Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies,"
5278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pasricha, Gurnain, 2008. "Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7z35t1cn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Pasricha, Gurnain, 2008. "Financial integration in emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 8220, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2008.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2006.
"International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price,"
Business School Working Papers
2006-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2006. "International financial integration through the law of one price," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3897, The World Bank.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989.
"Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s,"
NBER Working Papers
2856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1989. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4fw7c7bh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Taylor, Alan M, 2001.
"Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
- Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2006.
"Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?,"
192006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1943, CESifo Group Munich.
- Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June.
- Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22971. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.