Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effecs
Inferences about the presence or absence of threshold type nonlinearities in TAR models are conducted within models whose lag length has been estimated in a preliminary stage. Typically the null hypothesis of linearity is then tested against a threshold alternative on which the estimated lag length is imposed on each regime. In this paper we evaluate the properties of test statistics for detecting the presence of threshold effects in autoregressive models when this model uncertainty is taken into account. We show that this approach may lead to important distortions when the underlying model has truly threshold effects by establishing the limiting properties of the estimated lag length in the mispecified linear autoregressive fit and assessing the impact of this model uncertainty on the power of the tests. We subsequently propose a full model selection based approach designed to jointly detect the presence of threshold effects and optimally specify its dynamics and compare its performance with the traditional test based approach
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997.
"Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
381, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991.
"Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis,"
RCER Working Papers
296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
- Minxian Yang, 2002. "Lag length and mean break in stationary VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 374-387, 06.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1999.
" Testing for Linearity,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 1998.
"Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment,"
ESE Discussion Papers
15, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001.
"The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
- Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Simon M. Potter, 1993.
"A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
693, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 2005. "Challenges For Econometric Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 60-68, February.
- Pötscher, B.M., 1991. "Effects of Model Selection on Inference," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 163-185, June.
- Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 1998. "Specification via model selection in vector error correction models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 321-328, September.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0409013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.