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A sequential procedure for determining the number of regimes in a threshold autoregressive model

  • Birgit Strikholm
  • Timo Teräsvirta

In this paper, we propose a sequential method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models. The proposed method relies on the superconsistency of sequential threshold estimates and uses general linearity tests to determine the number of thresholds. A simulation study is performed in order to find out the finite-sample properties of our procedure and to compare it with two other procedures available in the literature. We find that our method works reasonably well for both single and multiple threshold models. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2006

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 472-491

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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:9:y:2006:i:3:p:472-491
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  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
  2. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  6. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  7. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics.
  8. George Kapetanios, 2003. "Threshold models for trended time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 687-707, November.
  9. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
  10. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  11. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
  12. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2001. "Bootstrap Tests: How Many Bootstraps?," Working Papers 1036, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Determining the Number of Regimes in a Threshold Autoregressive Model Using Smooth Transition Autoregressions," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 578, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Feb 2005.
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