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Inflation Thresholds and Relative Price Variability: Evidence from U.S. Cities

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  • Alexander Bick

    (Department of Money and Macroeconomics, Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Dieter Nautz

    (Department of Money and Macroeconomics, Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

The impact of inflation on relative price variability (RPV) is an important channel for real effects of inflation. With a view to the recent debate on the Federal Reserve’s implicit lower and upper bounds of its inflation objective, we introduce a modified version of Hansen’s panel threshold model to explore the inflation-RPV linkage in U.S. cities. We find two significant inflation thresholds and both positive and negative effects of inflation on RPV. The smallest effect of inflation on RPV is ensured if inflation is low but well above zero. If monetary policy aims at minimizing inflation’s impact on relative prices, our estimates suggest that U.S. inflation should range between 1.8 percent and 2.8 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2008. "Inflation Thresholds and Relative Price Variability: Evidence from U.S. Cities," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 61-76, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:3:a:3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Becker, Sascha S. & Nautz, Dieter, 2012. "Inflation, price dispersion and market integration through the lens of a monetary search model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 624-634.
    3. Saghir Pervaiz Ghauri & Rizwan Raheem Ahmed & Jolita Vveinhardt & Dalia Streimikiene, 2017. "Estimation of Relationship between Inflation and Relative Price Variability: Granger Causality and ARDL Modelling Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(44), pages 249-249, February.
    4. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    5. Mandel, Antoine & Taghawi-Nejad, Davoud & Veetil, Vipin P., 2019. "The price effects of monetary shocks in a network economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 300-316.
    6. Juliane Scharff & Sven Schreiber, 2012. "Evidence on the effects of inflation on price dispersion under indexation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 291-311, August.
    7. Manuel de Mier & Fernando Delbianco, 2023. "Cu\'anto es demasiada inflaci\'on? Una clasificaci\'on de reg\'imenes inflacionarios," Papers 2401.02428, arXiv.org.
    8. Hiranya K. Nath & Jayanta Sarkar, 2019. "Inflation and relative price variability: new evidence from survey-based measures of inflation expectations in Australia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 2001-2024, June.
    9. De Mier Manuel, 2023. "¿Cuánto es demasiada inflación? Una clasificación de regímenes inflacionarios," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4640, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    10. Alleyne, Dillon & Lugay, Beverly, 2011. "Inflation and the variability of relative prices in the Caribbean: evidence from panel threshold models," Documentos de Proyectos 4085, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Rodrigo Cerda & Alvaro Silva & Rolf Lüders, 2021. "Price controls, hyperinflation, and the inflation–relative price variability relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1725-1748, October.
    12. Mª Ángeles Caraballo & Tilemahos Efthimiadis, 2012. "Divergent Optimal Inflation Rates In Euro Area Countries Or "Does One Size Fit All?"," EcoMod2012 3923, EcoMod.
    13. Chi-Young Choi & Young Se Kim & Róisín O'Sullivan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Relative Price Variability: What Difference Does Inflation Targeting Make?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 934-957, April.
    14. Nebiye Yamak & Sinem Kocak & Fatma Kolcu, 2016. "Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 193-210, September.
    15. Ma Caraballo & Tilemahos Efthimiadis, 2012. "Is 2 % the optimal inflation rate for the Euro Area?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 235-243, September.
    16. Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2015. "Relative price variability in Brazil: an analysis of headline and core inflation rates [Relative price variability in Brazil: an analysis of headline and core inflation rates]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(1), pages 83-100, January-A.
    17. Sascha S. Becker, 2011. "What Drives the Relationship Between Inflation and Price Dispersion? Market Power vs. Price Rigidity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    18. NASSER ARY TANIMOUNE & Gervasio Semedo, 2013. "Inflation Et Objectif De Monnaie Unique Dans Les Pays De La Cedeao :Convergence Nominale Versus Variabilite Relative Des Prix: Inflation And Common Currency Goal In Ecowas :Nominal Convergence Versus ," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 56(3-4), pages 261-289.
    19. Nebiye Yamak & Sinem Kocak & Fatma Kolcu, 2016. "Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:Evidence from Panel Data," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 183-198, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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