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Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies

  • Pasricha, Gurnain

This paper analyzes de-facto integration in some Emerging Market Economies based on behavior of deviations from Covered Interest Parity in the last decade. An Asymmetric Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive model is used to estimate bands of speculative inaction. The estimated bands follow the pattern expected, and reveal a rational market in the sense that deviations from parity are self correcting. The paper uses information from the estimated models to construct a new index of de-facto integration. Such a price-based measure of integration is crucial to studies of effectiveness of controls and of impact of capital openness on macroeconomic variables.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt7z35t1cn.

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Date of creation: 08 May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt7z35t1cn
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  1. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2005. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Working Papers 122005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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  6. Rhee, S Ghon & Chang, Rosita P, 1992. " Intra-day Arbitrage Opportunities in Foreign Exchange and Eurocurrency Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 363-79, March.
  7. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
  8. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Bernando S. de M. Carvalho, 2006. "Ineffective controls on capital inflows under sophisticated financial markets: Brazil in the nineties," Textos para discussão 516, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization; A Reappraisal," IMF Working Papers 06/189, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," Working Papers 072005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  11. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 1997. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Working Papers 9701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  13. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June.
  14. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-70, November.
  15. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
  16. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2005. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 05/3, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II; Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," IMF Working Papers 06/69, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-70, April.
  19. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  20. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April.
  21. Nicolas E. Magud E. & Carmen M. & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Working Paper Series WP11-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  22. Mark P. Taylor & Elena Tchernykh Branson, 2004. "Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 3.
  23. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
  25. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening and Development: Evidence and Policy Controversies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 65-70, May.
  26. Branson, William H, 1969. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 1028-35, Nov./Dec..
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