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Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity

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  • Bill Francis
  • Iftekhar Hasan
  • Delroy Hunter

Abstract

In this paper we make use of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) relationship to examine the extent that the liberalization of emerging financial markets has resulted in the integration of developing countries’ currency markets into the international capital market. Previous tests of the impact of liberalization on the integration of emerging markets capital markets into world financial markets are confined to equity markets, ignoring currency markets that arguably are more important in determining the success of financial liberalization. We find that, in general, deviation from UIRP in the emerging markets is systematic in nature and that a significant part of emerging market currency excess returns is attributable to time-varying risk premium. Importantly we also find that these countries’ currency deposits provide U.S. (equity) investors the benefits of international diversification. Our results also show that for some markets, liberalization improved (worsened) investors’ perception of growth opportunity while reducing (increasing) investors' perception of the probability of financial distress. Finally, while several countries benefited from liberalization and have become more integrated into the world capital market, the experience is country specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Delroy Hunter, 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2002-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Gande, Amar & John, Kose & Senbet, Lemma W., 2008. "Bank incentives, economic specialization, and financial crises in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 707-732, September.
    2. Straetmans, Stefan T.M. & Versteeg, Roald J. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2013. "Are capital controls in the foreign exchange market effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 36-53.
    3. Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 219-236.
    4. Aysun, Uluc & Lee, Sanglim, 2014. "Can time-varying risk premiums explain the excess returns in the interest rate parity condition?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 78-100.
    5. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2007. "Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 5278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sanglim Lee, 2012. "Expected Currency Excess Returns and International Business Cycles," Working papers 2012-16, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
    8. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    9. Uluc Aysun & Sanglim Lee, 2013. "The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition," Working Papers 2013-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    10. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Y. Siregar & Tony Cavoli, 2006. "Financial Integration in East Asia: How Far? How Much Further to Go?," Working Papers id:372, eSocialSciences.
    11. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Pinar Yeşin, 2014. "Information Asymmetry and Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(1), pages 110-131, March.
    13. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp297, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    14. Sarmidi, Tamat, 2008. "Exchange Rates Predictability in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 16580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen KoÄenda & Petr ZemÄik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
    16. Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Are International Interest Rate Differentials Driven by the Risk Premium? The Case of Asian Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(6), pages 1-14.
    17. Soofi Abdol S, 2008. "Global Financial Integration and the MENA Countries: Evidence from Equity and Money Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 93-116, April.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:6:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:asab is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Brown, Martin & Ongena, Steven & Yesin, Pinar, 2009. "Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 7540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar," MPRA Paper 33167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2010.
    22. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 568-573.

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    Capital market ; Financial markets ; Markets;

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