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Does hedging tell the full story? : Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia

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  • Francis, Bill B.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar
  • Hunter, Delroy M.

Abstract

While the importance of currency movements to industry competitiveness is theoretically well established, there is little evidence that currency risk impacts US industries. Applying a conditional asset-pricing model to 36 US industries, we find that all industries have a significant currency premium that adds about 2.47 percentage points to the cost of equity and accounts for approximately 11.7% of the absolute value of total risk premia. Cross-industry variation in the currency premium is explained by foreign income, industry competitiveness, leverage, liquidity and other industry characteristics, while its time variation is explained by US aggregate foreign trade, monetary policy, growth opportunities and other macro variables. The results indicate that methodological weakness, not hedging, explains the insignificant industry currency risk premium found in previous work, thus resolving the conundrum that the currency risk premium is important at the aggregate stock market level, but not at industry level

Suggested Citation

  • Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Does hedging tell the full story? : Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 14/2008, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2008_014
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    Cited by:

    1. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M. & Zhu, Yun, 2017. "Do managerial risk-taking incentives influence firms' exchange rate exposure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 154-169.
    2. repec:eee:corfin:v:50:y:2018:i:c:p:203-222 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mikael C. Bergbrant & Kaysia Campbell & Delroy M. Hunter, 2014. "Firm-Level Competition and Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence from a Global Survey of Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(4), pages 885-916, December.
    4. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Foreign exchange volatility and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1202-1216.
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Tang, Yi & Yan, An, 2016. "Do the size, value, and momentum factors drive stock returns in emerging markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-204.
    6. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.
    7. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou & Wu, Hong, 2014. "Emerging market currency exposure: Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-61.
    8. Krapl, Alain & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 2015. "Foreign exchange risk and the term-structure of industry costs of equity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 71-88.
    9. Ding Du & Pin Ng & Xiaobing Zhao, 2013. "Measuring currency exposure with quantile regression," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 549-566, October.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2015. "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms: The role of processing exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-157.
    11. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette A., 2010. "Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 148-173, February.
    12. Chung, Hyunchul & Majerbi, Basma & Rizeanu, Sorin, 2015. "Exchange risk premia and firm characteristics," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 96-125.
    13. Carmelo Giaccotto & Alain Krapl, 2014. "Good News and Bad News about Firm-Level Stock Returns of Internationally Exposed Firms," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 523-550, December.
    14. Li, Shaofang & Marinč, Matej, 2014. "The use of financial derivatives and risks of U.S. bank holding companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 46-71.
    15. Ding Du & Ou Hu, 2014. "Cash Flows, Currency Risk, And The Cost Of Capital," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 139-158, June.
    16. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp & Nohel, Tom, 2015. "Time-varying systematic and idiosyncratic risk exposures of US bank holding companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-68.
    17. Du, Ding, 2014. "Persistent exchange-rate movements and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-53.
    18. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0646-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Krapl, Alain & O'Brien, Thomas J., 2015. "Direct versus indirect regression estimates of foreign exchange cash flow exposure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 103-112.
    20. Balvers, Ronald J. & Klein, Alina F., 2014. "Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 214-230.
    21. repec:bla:jfnres:v:39:y:2016:i:4:p:359-388 is not listed on IDEAS

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