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Covered Interest Arbitrage: Then vs. Now

  • Ted Juhl
  • William Miles
  • Marc D. Weidenmier

We introduce a new weekly database of spot and forward US-UK exchange rates as well as interest rates to examine the integration of forward exchange markets during the classical gold standard period (1880-1914). Using threshold autoregressions (TAR), we estimate the transactions cost band of covered interest differentials (CIDs) and compare our results to studies of more recent periods. Our findings indicate that CIDs for the US-UK rate were generally larger during the classical gold standard than any period since. We argue that slower information and communications technology during the gold standard period led to fewer short-term financial flows, higher transactions costs, and larger CIDs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10961.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Juhl, Ted, William Miles and Marc D. Weidenmier. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Then Versus Now," Economica, 2006, v73(290,May), 341-352.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10961
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  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
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  11. Officer, Lawrence H & Willett, Thomas D, 1970. "The Covered-Arbitrage Schedule: A Critical Survey of Recent Developments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 247-57, May.
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  15. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
  16. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-26, December.
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