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Financial integration in emerging market economies

  • Pasricha, Gurnain

This paper analyzes de-facto integration in some Emerging Market Economies based on behavior of deviations from Covered Interest Parity in the last 10 years. A price-based measure of de-facto integration provides crucial information for answering policy questions related to impact of capital openness and of effectiveness of controls. An Asymmetric Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive model is used to estimate bands of speculative inaction. The estimated bands follow the pattern expected, and reveal a rational market in the sense that deviations from parity are self correcting. The paper uses information from the estimated models to construct a new index of de-facto integration.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8220/1/MPRA_paper_8220.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8220.

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Date of creation: 10 Apr 2008
Date of revision: 10 Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8220
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  7. Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2007. "Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 349-420 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-70, April.
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  16. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
  17. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2007. "Capital controls: myth and reality, a portfolio balance approach to capital controls," Working Paper Series 2007-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Mark P. Taylor & Elena Tchernykh Branson, 2004. "Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 3.
  19. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April.
  20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  21. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  22. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-70, November.
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  24. Rhee, S Ghon & Chang, Rosita P, 1992. " Intra-day Arbitrage Opportunities in Foreign Exchange and Eurocurrency Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 363-79, March.
  25. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
  26. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June.
  27. Philip R. Lane & Gian Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II; Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970–2004," IMF Working Papers 06/69, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Branson, William H, 1969. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 1028-35, Nov./Dec..
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