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Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties

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  • Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho
  • Márcio G.P. Garcia

Abstract

We analyze the Brazilian experience in the 1990s to assess the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows in restricting financial inflows and changing their composition towards long term flows. Econometric exercises (VARs) showed that controls on capital inflows were effective in deterring financial inflows for only a brief period, from two to six months. The hypothesis to explain the ineffectiveness of the controls is that financial institutions performed several operations aimed at avoiding capital controls. To check this hypothesis, we conducted interviews with market players. We collected several examples of the financial strategies engineered to avoid the capital controls and invest in the Brazilian fixed income market. The main conclusion is that controls on capital inflows, while they may be desirable, are of very limited effectiveness under sophisticated financial markets.

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  • Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G.P. Garcia, 2006. "Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties," NBER Working Papers 12283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12283 Note: IFM
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    Cited by:

    1. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Luis Servén, 2010. "Are All the Sacred Cows Dead? Implications of the Financial Crisis for Macro- and Financial Policies," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 25(1), pages 91-124, February.
    2. Noy, Ilan & Vu, Tam B., 2007. "Capital account liberalization and foreign direct investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 175-194, August.
    3. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2007. "Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 5278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence using a new index," FIW Working Paper series 037, FIW.
    6. repec:rss:jnljbs:v2i3p3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    8. Cortuk, Orcan & Akcelik, Yasin & Turhan, İbrahim, 2012. "Mitigating Turkey's trilemma trade-offs," MPRA Paper 40101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash S. Qureshi & Dennis B.S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Entradas de capital: el papel de los controles," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(23), pages 135-164, July-Dece.
    10. Lambert, F. & Ramos-Tallada, J. & Rebillard, C., 2011. "Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries," Working papers 357, Banque de France.
    11. World Bank, 2008. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Volume 2. Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8017, The World Bank.
    12. Bruno Coelho & Kevin P. Gallagher, 2013. "The effectiveness of capital controls: evidence from Colombia and Thailand," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 386-403, May.
    13. Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Rethinking the Economics of Capital Mobilityand Capital Controls," IMK Working Paper 01-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Roberto Pires Messenberg & Vanessa Petrelli De Correa & Julia De Medeiros Braga & Renata Carvalho Silva, 2014. "Instability Of Capital Inflows Andfinancial Assets Returns In The Brazilian Economy," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 097, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Rathin Roy & Raquel Almeida Ramos, 2012. "IMF Article IV Reports: An Analysis of Policy Recommendations," Working Papers 86, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    16. John Brondolo, 2011. "Taxing Financial Transactions; An Assessment of Administrative Feasibility," IMF Working Papers 11/185, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2013. "Unremunerated reserve requirements, exchange rate volatility, and firm value," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 358-378.
    18. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Serven, Luis, 2009. "Are all the sacred cows dead ? implications of the financial crisis for macro and financial policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4807, The World Bank.
    19. Cesar Rodrigues van der Laan & André Moreira Cunha & Tiago Wickstrom Alves, 2010. "External financial liberalization and growth in emerging countries: a panel data estimation using a new index (1990-2004)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 307-332, January.
    20. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "What Lessons Can Asia Draw from Capital Controls in Brazil during 2008–2012?," ADBI Working Papers 423, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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