IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties

  • Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho
  • Márcio G.P. Garcia

We analyze the Brazilian experience in the 1990s to assess the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows in restricting financial inflows and changing their composition towards long term flows. Econometric exercises (VARs) showed that controls on capital inflows were effective in deterring financial inflows for only a brief period, from two to six months. The hypothesis to explain the ineffectiveness of the controls is that financial institutions performed several operations aimed at avoiding capital controls. To check this hypothesis, we conducted interviews with market players. We collected several examples of the financial strategies engineered to avoid the capital controls and invest in the Brazilian fixed income market. The main conclusion is that controls on capital inflows, while they may be desirable, are of very limited effectiveness under sophisticated financial markets.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12283.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12283.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties , Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho, Márcio G. P. Garcia. in Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets , Edwards and Garcia. 2008
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12283
Note: IFM
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Smith, R Todd, 2002. "Temporary controls on capital inflows," MPRA Paper 13863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Francisco Nadal-De Simone & Piritta Sorsa, 1999. "A Review of Capital Account Restrictions in Chile in the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 99/52, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Leonardo Bartolini & Allan Drazen, 1996. "When liberal policies reflect external shocks, what do we learn?," Staff Reports 18, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Marcio G. P. Garcia & Alexandre Barcinski, 1996. "Capital flows to Brazil in the nineties: Macroeconomic aspects and the effectiveness of capital controls," Textos para discussão 357, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cordella, Tito, 1998. "Can Short-Term Capital Controls Promote Capital Inflows," CEPR Discussion Papers 2011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern91-2, 07.
  8. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Leonardo Leiderman, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of Capital Flows to Latin America: Experience and Policy Issues," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5821, Inter-American Development Bank.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2005. "Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 11640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," NBER Working Papers 5352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "Capital Controls: Mud in the Wheels of Market Discipline," Working papers 4454-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  15. Edison, Hali & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "Stopping hot money," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 533-553, December.
  16. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization and Growth: Was Mr. Mahathir Right?," NBER Working Papers 9427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Jose De Gregorio & Sebastian Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 2000. "Controls on Capital Inflows: Do they Work?," NBER Working Papers 7645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Vicente Galbis, 1996. "Currency Convertibility and the Fund; Review and Prognosis," IMF Working Papers 96/39, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio, 2005. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 322, Central Bank of Chile.
  20. Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Stanley Fischer, 2002. "Financial Crises and Reform of the International Financial System," NBER Working Papers 9297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Forbes, Kristin J., 2003. "One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smaller Traded Firms," Working papers 4273-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  23. Eliane A. Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1997. "Capital Flows to Brazil-The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 97/115, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Christopher J. Neely, 1999. "An introduction to capital controls," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 13-30.
  26. Peter M. Garber, 1998. "Derivatives in International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 6623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January.
  28. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
  29. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  30. Goldstein, Morris, 1995. "Coping with too much of a good thing : policy responses for large capital inflows in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1507, The World Bank.
  31. Garcia, Márcio & Olivares, Gino, 2001. "O Prêmio de Risco da Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil durante o Plano Real," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 55(2), April.
  32. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  33. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Leonardo Leiderman, 1995. "Macroeconomics of Capital Flows to Latin America: Experience and Policy Issues," Research Department Publications 4012, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.