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Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets


  • Hutchison, Michael
  • Kendall, Jake
  • Pasricha, Gurnain
  • Singh, Nirvikar


This paper analyzes the extent to which the effectiveness of capital controls in India have changed over time. We begin by calculating deviations from covered interest parity utilizing data from the 3-month offshore non-deliverable rupiah forward (NDF) market. Then, using the self-exciting threshold autoregression methodology, we estimate a no-arbitrage band whose boundaries are determined by transactions costs and by the effectiveness of capital controls. Inside the bands, small deviations from CIP follow a random walk process. Outside the bands, profitable arbitrage opportunities exist and we estimate an adjustment process back towards the boundaries. We identify three distinct periods, and estimate the model over each sub-sample in order to capture the de facto effect of changes in capital controls over time. We find that de facto capital control barriers: (1) are asymmetric over inflows and outflows, (2) have changed over time from primarily restricting outflows to effectively restricting inflows; (3) arbitrage activity closes deviations from CIP when the threshold boundaries are exceeded in all sub-samples. In recent years, capital controls have been more symmetric over capital inflows and outflows and the deviations from CIP outside the boundaries are closed more quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain & Singh, Nirvikar, 2010. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets," MPRA Paper 21771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21771

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    2. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    3. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    4. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
    5. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2007. "Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 5278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters,in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
    9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2006. "International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price," Business School Working Papers 2006-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    11. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, May.
    12. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    13. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    15. Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik, 2007. "India's Experience with Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest for a Sustainable Current Account Deficit," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 609-644 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kuo-Shing Chen & Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ming Chen, 2017. "Arbitrage, Covered Interest Parity and Cointegration Analysis on the New Taiwan Dollar/US Dollar FOREX Market Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 420-428.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, January.
    4. Kuga Iakov & Elena Kuzmina, 2016. "Covered interest parity: evidence from Russian money market," EERC Working Paper Series 16/01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "The financial trilemma in China and a comparative analysis with India," MPRA Paper 34485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mahvash S. Qureshi & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2011. "Managing Capital Inflows: The Role of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies," NBER Chapters,in: Global Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Karl F Habermeier & Annamaria Kokenyne & Chikako Baba, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies in Managing Large Inflows," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/14, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Prachi Mishra & Peter J Montiel & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2016. "Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries; Evidence from India," IMF Working Papers 16/167, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Michael Hutchison & Rajeswari Sengupta & Nirvikar Singh, 2012. "India’s Trilemma: Financial Liberalisation, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 3-18, January.
    10. repec:rnp:ecopol:ep1711 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:pra:mprapa:39771 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00660654, HAL.

    More about this item


    capital controls; India; arbitrage; non-deliverable forward markets; covered interest parity; self-exciting autoregressive threshold model;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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