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Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Dickson Tam
  • Matthew S. Yiu

Abstract

One argument for floating the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is to insulate China’s monetary policy from the US effect. However, we note that both theoretical considerations and empirical results do not offer a definite answer on the link between exchange rate arrangement and policy dependence. We examine the empirical relevance of the argument by analyzing the interactions between the Chinese and US interest rates. Our empirical results, which appear robust to various assumptions of data persistence, suggest that the US effect on the Chinese interest rate is quite weak. Apparently, even with its de facto peg to the US dollar, China has alternative measures to retain its policy independence and de-link its interest rates from the US rate. In other words, the argument for a flexible RMB to insulate China’s monetary policy from the US effect is not substantiated by the observed interest rate interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1943, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1943
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
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    4. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
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    6. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain & Singh, Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian capital control liberalization: Evidence from NDF markets," Working Papers 09/60, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
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    10. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2013. "China's financial linkages with Asia and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 186-206.
    11. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, February.
    12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Fog Encircling The Renminbi Debate," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(03), pages 403-418.
    13. Michael M Hutchison & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha & Nirvikar Singh, 2012. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from the Offshore NDF Market," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 395-438, September.
    14. George M. von Furstenberg, 2007. "Aspects, Models and Measures for Assessing the Competitiveness of International Financial Services in a Particular Location," Working Papers 182007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Tao Cai & Vinh Q. T. Dang & Jennifer T. Lai, 2016. "China's Capital and ‘Hot’ Money Flows: An Empirical Investigation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 276-294, August.
    16. Amit Ghosh & Ramya Ghosh, 2012. "Capital controls, exchange rate regime and monetary policy independence in India," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 212-230.
    17. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy dependence; interest rate interactions; exchange rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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