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From the General to the Specific

  • J. James Reade
  • Ulrich Volz

This article uses automatic model selection procedures, based on the gernal-to-specific approach, to investigate inflation in China. A novelty of this article is the use of a technique called impulse indicator saturation which allows us to uncover instabilities and to specify a general model and select down to a more specific model that best explains inflation in China. By and large, our findings suggest that China has been able to insulate itself against shocks from the US, although (maybe surprisingly) monetary growth in Europe seems to have an effect. Nonetheless, the main factors impacting Chinese inflation appear to be domestic, names GDP growth and money growth.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 11-18.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:11-18
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  1. Yin-wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2006. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," Working Papers 192006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  3. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2007. "Modelling inflation in China : a regional perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Volz, Ulrich & Reade, J. James, 2011. "Chinese Monetary Policy and the Dollar Peg," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48740, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Russell, Bill & Banerjee, Anindya & Malki, Issam & Ponomareva, Natalia, 2011. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-27, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  6. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  7. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
  9. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression estimator," CREATES Research Papers 2008-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  10. Spanos, Aris, 1994. "On Modeling Heteroskedasticity: The Student's t and Elliptical Linear Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 286-315, June.
  11. Nymoen, Ragnar & L. Castle, Jennifer & A. Doornik, Jurgen & F. Hendry, David, 2010. "Testing the Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Memorandum 21/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  12. Michael Funke, 2006. "Inflation In China: Modelling A Roller Coaster Ride," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 413-429, December.
  13. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
  14. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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