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Chinese Monetary Policy and the Dollar Peg

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  • Volz, Ulrich
  • Reade, J. James

Abstract

This paper investigates to what extent Chinese monetary policy is constrained by the dollar peg. To this end, we use a cointegration framework to examine whether Chinese interest rates are driven by the Fed’s policy. In a second step, we estimate a monetary model for China, in which we include also other monetary policy tools besides the central bank interest rate, namely reserve requirement ratios and open market operations. Our results suggest China has been relatively successful in isolating its monetary policy from the US policy and that the interest rate tool has not been effectively made use of. We therefore conclude that by employing capital controls and relying on other instruments than the interest rate China has been able to exert relatively autonomous monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Volz, Ulrich & Reade, J. James, 2011. "Chinese Monetary Policy and the Dollar Peg," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48740, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48740
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Chinese inflation, monetary policy and the dollar peg
      by Guest Author in credit writedowns on 2011-02-18 19:20:00
    2. China und die G20
      by Ulrich Volz in Ökonomenstimme on 2011-03-08 18:00:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Borowski & Adam Czerniak, 2012. "Determinanty polityki pieniężnej Ludowego Banku Chin," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 97-116.
    2. Ito, Hiro & Volz, Ulrich, 2012. "The People’s Republic of China and Global Imbalances from a View of Sectorial Reforms," ADBI Working Papers 393, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Sunanda Sen, 2012. "Managing Global Financial Flows at the Cost of National Autonomy: China and India," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_714, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Körner, Finn Marten & Ehnts, Dirk H., 2013. "Chinese monetary policy – from theory to practice," MPRA Paper 44264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    6. Popper, Helen & Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2013. "Trilemma stability and international macroeconomic archetypes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 181-193.
    7. Kristina Spantig, 2012. "International monetary policy spillovers in an asymmetric world monetary system - The United States and China," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    9. Sunanda SeN, 2014. "Financial integration and national autonomy: China and India," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 20-44, January.
    10. Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "What measures Chinese monetary policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 263-286.
    11. Taofeek Olusola Ayinde, 2022. "Modelling macroeconomic trilemma and central bank behaviour in Nigeria: a Markov-switching approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1303-1325, August.
    12. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
    13. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese monetary policy; monetary independence; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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