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The Effect Of Exchange Rate Arrangements On Transmission Of Interest Rates And Monetary Policy Independence: Evidence From A Group Of New Eu Member Countries "


  • Bogdan Căpraru

    () (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, "Al. I. Cuza" University, Iasi, Romania)

  • Iulian Ihnatov

    () (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, "Al. I. Cuza" University, Iasi, Romania)


The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether empirical support for the monetary independence hypothesis can be found from eight EU new member countries. Thus, we will analyze which are the consequences of the euro interest rate movements over the interest rates in selected EU new members outside euro zone, in a framework of different exchange rate regimes. We employ 2SLS cross-section fixed-effects estimation on a panel of countries, with a Newey-West estimator, robust against heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. We find that interest rates in non-Euro area EU members with floating exchange rate arrangements are found to react considerably more to ECB’s interest rate shocks than do interest rates in those that have fixed or intermediate exchange rate regimes. The evidence suggest that countries with floating exchange rate arrangements are less independent than the fixed and intermediate exchange rate countries and, furthermore, intermediate arrangements help to preserve better the monetary policy autonomy. "

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan Căpraru & Iulian Ihnatov, 2011. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Arrangements On Transmission Of Interest Rates And Monetary Policy Independence: Evidence From A Group Of New Eu Member Countries "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 71-81, november.
  • Handle: RePEc:aic:journl:y:2011:v:57:p:71-81

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu HSING, 2012. "Effects of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Bulgaria," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(569)), pages 49-58, April.
    2. Yu Hsing, 2013. "Testing The Trilemma Hypothesis And Measuring Their Effects On Inflation, Growth And Volatility For Poland," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 9(3), pages 57-64.

    More about this item


    exchange rate regime; monetary policy independence hypothesis; interest rate; European integration; European Central Bank;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration


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