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Trilemma stability and international macroeconomic archetypes

Author

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  • Popper, Helen
  • Mandilaras, Alex
  • Bird, Graham

Abstract

This paper uses the simple geometry of the classic, open-economy trilemma to introduce a new gauge of the stability of international macroeconomic arrangements. The new stability gauge reflects the simultaneity of a country's choices of exchange rate fixity, financial openness, and monetary sovereignty. So, the new gauge is bounded and correspondingly non-Gaussian. We use the new stability gauge in nonlinear panel estimates to examine the post-Bretton Woods period, and we find that trilemma policy stability is linked to official holdings of foreign exchange reserves in low income countries. We also find that the combination of fixed exchange rates and financial market openness is the most stable arrangement within the trilemma; and middle-income countries have less stable trilemma arrangements than either low or high-income countries. The paper also characterizes international macroeconomic arrangements in terms of their semblance to definitive policy archetypes; and, it uses the trilemma constraint to provide a new gauge of monetary sovereignty.

Suggested Citation

  • Popper, Helen & Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2013. "Trilemma stability and international macroeconomic archetypes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 181-193.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:64:y:2013:i:c:p:181-193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mandilaras, Alex S., 2015. "The international policy trilemma in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 18-32.
    2. Andreas Steiner & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2017. "Exit Strategies, Capital Flight and Speculative Attacks: Europe's Version of the Trilemma," CESifo Working Paper Series 6753, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 269-285.
    5. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
    7. Shen, Pei-Long & Li, Wen & Wang, Xiao-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei, 2015. "Contagion effect of the European financial crisis on China's stock markets: Interdependence and pure contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-199.
    8. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:135-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Samuel Ligonnière, 2017. "Trilemma, Dilemma and Global Players," Working Papers 2017-15, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trilemma; Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes; International Reserves; Financial openness; Monetary sovereignty;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory

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