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Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Ito, Hiro

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the relative policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices, namely monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness, we find that emerging market countries have adopted trilemma policy combinations with the least degree of relative policy divergence in the last 15 years. We find that a developing or emerging market country with a higher degree of relative policy divergence is more likely to experience a currency or debt crisis. However, a developing or emerging market country with a higher degree of relative policy divergence tends to experience smaller output losses when it experiences a currency or banking crisis. Latin American crisis countries tended to reduce their financial integration in the aftermath of a crisis, while this is not the case for the Asian crisis countries. The Asian crisis countries tended to reduce the degree of relative policy divergence in the aftermath of the crisis, probably aiming at macroeconomic policies that are less prone to crises. The degree of relative policy divergence is affected by past crisis experiences – countries that experienced currency crisis or a currency-banking twin crisis tend to adopt a policy combination with a smaller degree of policy divergence.

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  • Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:49:y:2014:i:pa:p:28-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.05.005
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    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2017. "Balance sheet effects on monetary and financial spillovers: The East Asian crisis plus 20," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 258-282.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2020. "Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 529-563, July.
    4. Ito, Hiro & Kawai, Masahiro, 2014. "Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination," ADBI Working Papers 456, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Jean‐Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2019. "Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 680-710, March.
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    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    8. Ligonniere, Samuel, 2018. "Trilemma, dilemma and global players," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 20-39.
    9. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    10. Rosaria Canale, 2015. "Capital flows, long term bond yields and fiscal stance: the Eurozone policy trilemma," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 14(1), pages 31-44, December.
    11. Qian, Xingwang & Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "International reserves and the maturity of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 399-418.
    12. Padhan, Hemachandra & Sahu, Santosh Kumar & Dash, Umakant, 2021. "Non-linear analysis of international reserve, trade and trilemma in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    13. Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2017. "The growth effects of financial openness and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 492-512.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
    15. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2018. "The role of international reserves holding in buffering external shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(29), pages 3128-3147, June.
    16. Viet‐Ngu Hoang & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Tuan Pham, 2021. "On the effects of monetary policy in Vietnam: Evidence from a Trilemma analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1428-1447, May.
    17. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lin, Chun-Wei & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2016. "Financial liberalization, insurance market, and the likelihood of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 25-51.
    18. Rosaria Rita Canale & Paul Grauwe & Pasquale Foresti & Oreste Napolitano, 2018. "Is there a trade-off between free capital mobility, financial stability and fiscal policy flexibility in the EMU?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 177-201, February.
    19. ITO Hiroyuki & Cesar RODRIGUEZ, 2015. "Clamoring for Greenbacks: Explaining the resurgence of the U.S. dollar in international debt," Discussion papers 15119, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 298-330.
    21. Ito, Hiro & Chinn, Menzie, 2014. "The Rise of the “Redback” and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies," ADBI Working Papers 473, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    22. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2019. "The effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-18.
    23. Ábel, István, 2015. "A monetáris politika globális tendenciái és a stabilitási kockázatok [Financial stability concerns and global exposure of monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 284-304.
    24. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Igor da Silva Veiga, 2017. "The open economy trilemma in Latin America: A three-decade analysis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 135-154, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impossible trinity; International reserves; Financial liberalization; Financial crisis; Exchange rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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