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Anatomy of banking crises in developing and emerging market countries

Listed author(s):
  • Duttagupta, Rupa
  • Cashin, Paul

This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT model identifies three conditions (and the specific threshold of the key indictors) at which the vulnerability to banking crisis increases--(i) very high inflation, (ii) highly dollarized bank deposits combined with nominal depreciation or low bank liquidity, and (iii) low bank profitability--which highlight that foreign currency risk, poor financial soundness, and macroeconomic instability are important drivers of banking crises. The results also emphasize the importance of conditional thresholds in triggering crises, in that banking crises are underlined by a combination of vulnerabilities--or a sequence of (non-linear) conditions--rather than the deterioration of a unique factor.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 354-376

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:354-376
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  17. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile.
  18. John H. Boyd & Bruce A. Champ, 2003. "Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years," Working Paper 0317, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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