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Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility

  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Ito, Hiro

We examine the open macroeconomic policy choices of developing economies from the perspectiveof the economic “trilemma†hypothesis. We construct an index of divergence of the threetrilemma policy choices, and evaluate its patterns in recent decades. We find that the threedimensions of the trilemma configurations are converging towards a “middle ground†amongemerging market economies -- managed exchange rate flexibility underpinned by sizable holdingsof international reserves, intermediate levels of monetary independence, and controlled financialintegration. Emerging market economies with more converged policy choices tend to experiencesmaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with relatively low internationalreserves/GDP could experience higher levels of output volatility when they choose a policycombination with a greater degree of policy divergence. Yet this heightened output volatility effectdoes not apply to economies with relatively high international reserves/GDP holding.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt5vb313vr.

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Date of creation: 22 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt5vb313vr
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  1. Torsten Sløk & Michael Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Hali J. Edison, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," IMF Working Papers 02/120, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2010. "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 15876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," NBER Working Papers 9154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  10. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," CEG Working Papers 200113, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
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  13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," Research Department Publications 4504, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  14. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
  15. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-72, Summer.
  16. Popper, Helen & Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2013. "Trilemma stability and international macroeconomic archetypes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 181-193.
  17. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
  18. Cortuk, Orcan & Singh, Nirvikar, 2011. "Turkey’s trilemma trade-offs: is there a role for reserves?," MPRA Paper 33887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime," NBER Working Papers 8828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C & Taylor, Alan M., 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 6693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
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  27. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
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  29. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  31. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Cohesion: Historical Perspectives and Political-Economy Considerations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 797-822, December.
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