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Turkey’ Trilemma Trade-offs: Is there a role for reserves?

Author

Listed:
  • Orcan ÇÖRTÜK

    (Merkez Bankası)

  • Nirvikar SINGH

    (University of California Santa Cruz)

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the Mundell-Fleming theoretical concept of an “impossible trinity” (trilemma) for Turkey, following the Aizenman, Chinn and Ito approach. However, we also introduce alternative empirical techniques in order to deal with possible misspecification problems that we detect in the mentioned approach. Accordingly, we show that financial integration and monetary independence have increased from late 1990s to 2010, with corresponding limitations on exchange rate stability. Our analysis continues by exploring the implications of changes in the trilemma indices for inflation in a regression in which we find that trilemma indices have certain impact on inflation. Finally by introducing international reserves (as a percentage of GDP) to the equation, we also attain role for international reserves on decreasing inflation conditional upon it is above a certain threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Orcan ÇÖRTÜK & Nirvikar SINGH, 2013. "Turkey’ Trilemma Trade-offs: Is there a role for reserves?," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 28(328), pages 67-88.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:28:y:2013:i:328:p:67-88
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    4. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
    5. Michael Hutchison & Rajeswari Sengupta & Nirvikar Singh, 2012. "India’s Trilemma: Financial Liberalisation, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 3-18, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:weltar:v:154:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10290-017-0302-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 269-285.
    3. Canale, Rosaria Rita & de Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale & Napolitano, Oreste, 2018. "Is there a trade-off between free capital mobility, financial stability and fiscal policy flexibility in the EMU?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86629, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trilemma; Impossible Trinity; International Reserves;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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