Chinese monetary policy – from theory to practice
Chinese monetary policy constitutes a marked example of a clash between theory and practice. In theory, a fixed exchange rate regime with capital mobility turns the money supply into an endogenous variable while expansionary pressure can be alleviated by the central bank by foreign currency transactions. For China, this standard view is contended by the 'compensation thesis' as proposed by Lavoie and Wang (2012) according to which the central bank maintains discretion over money supply by using alternative balance sheet instruments. In this paper we show that the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) activities can be better characterized by the 'compensation thesis' view of alternative money supply operations. In addition, we can thus characterize the PBoC's policy stance as being directed at targeting inflation and exchange rate stability via a five-phase policy mix using sterilization bonds and reserve requirements according to macroeconomic conditions. After downgrading the loans-to-deposits ratio of 75% to the status of an indicator and given the rise in lending despite a high reserve ratio, the quantity-driven approach to monetary policy of the PBoC faces an uncertain future.
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- Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008.
"What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model,"
China & World Economy,
Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21.
- Dong He & Laurent Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," Working Papers 0806, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Volz, Ulrich & Reade, J. James, 2011.
"Chinese Monetary Policy and the Dollar Peg,"
Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis
48740, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Marc Lavoie & Peng Wang, 2012. "The ‘compensation’ thesis, as exemplified by the case of the Chinese central bank," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 287-301, April.
- Robert A. Mundell, 1960. "The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 227-257.
- Buiter, Willem H., 2008. "Can Central Banks Go Broke?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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