IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v33y2015icp163-178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific

Author

Listed:
  • Shu, Chang
  • He, Dong
  • Cheng, Xiaoqiang

Abstract

This study presents evidence of the renminbi's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The CNH market – the offshore renminbi foreign exchange market – is found to exert an effect on Asian currencies that is distinct from that of the onshore (CNY) market. Changes in the RMB/USD rates in both markets have a statistically and economically significant impact on changes in Asian currency rates against the US dollar, after controlling for other major currency moves and the transmission of China's monetary policy to the region. The continuing growth of the offshore renminbi market points to rising influence of the CNH market, but how long the independent impact will last will likely depend on China's progress in liberalising its capital account. The findings also suggest that China's regional influence is increasingly transmitted through financial channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:163-178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2015.01.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X15000243
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey Frankel & Daniel Xie, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 568-572, May.
    2. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2012. "Fear of appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The role of the Chinese renminbi," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 324-334.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 384-416, July.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    5. C. Randall Henning, 2012. "Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series WP12-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronization," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, February.
    7. Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu & Raymond Yip, 2007. "Renminbi Derivatives: Recent Development and Issues," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime [‘Working with the IMF to strengthen exchange rate surveillance’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 576-627.
    9. William H. Branson & Conor N. Healy, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in ASEAN+1," Chapters, in: Koichi Hamada & Beate Reszat & Ulrich Volz (ed.), Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Mattoo, Aaditya & Mishra, Prachi & Subramanian, Arvind, 2012. "Spillover effects of exchange rates : a study of the Renminbi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5989, The World Bank.
    11. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Non-deliverable forwards: 2013 and beyond," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Eswar S. Prasad & Lei Ye, 2011. "The renminbi’s role in the global monetary system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 127-197.
    13. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    14. Dong He & Robert N. McCauley, 2010. "Offshore Markets for the Domestic Currency: Monetary and Financial Stability Issues," Working Papers 1002, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    15. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    16. He, Dong & Wang, Honglin, 2012. "Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 928-947.
    17. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    18. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "What has driven Chinese monetary policy since 1990? Investigating the People's bank's policy rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 847-859, September.
    19. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    20. Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, November.
    21. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2013. "Explaining share price disparity with parameter uncertainty: Evidence from Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1073-1083.
    22. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:22:y:2007:i::p:575-627 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Robert N. McCauley, 2013. "Renminbi internationalisation and China’s financial development," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 101-115, May.
    24. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 295-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Dong He & Honglin Wang, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in China - Evidence from Loan-Level Data," Working Papers 162013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    26. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
    27. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "People's Republic of China; Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation and Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/193, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    2. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    4. Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
    5. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2014. "Is the Renminbi Asia's Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-20.
    6. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2016. "Is there really a renminbi bloc in Asia?: A modified Frankel–Wei approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 72-97.
    7. Benjamin KEDDAD & SATO Kiyotaka, 2019. "Pegging or Floating? A Regime-Switching Perspective of Asian Exchange Rate Practices," Discussion papers 19073, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2014. "The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China: A Discrete Choice Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-12, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    9. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2012. "Fear of appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The role of the Chinese renminbi," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 324-334.
    10. Jeffrey Frankel & Daniel Xie, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 568-572, May.
    11. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "New Estimation Of China'S Exchange Rate Regime," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 346-360, August.
    13. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2013. "China's financial linkages with Asia and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 186-206.
    14. Volz, Ulrich, 2013. "RMB internationalisation and currency co-operation in East Asia," Working Papers 125, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    15. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "The determinants of the benchmark interest rates in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 395-417.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    17. Thomas Willett & Eric M.P. Chiu & Sirathorn (B.J.) Dechsakulthorn & Ramya Ghosh & Bernard Kibesse & Kenneth Kim & Jeff (Yongbok) Kim & Alice Ouyang, 2011. "Classifying international aspects of currency regimes," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 288-303, November.
    18. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    19. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling Us Something about Where the Renminbi–US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1581-1598, December.
    20. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2009. "The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 6(1), pages 157-173, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renminbi internationalisation; Renminbi impact; Offshore markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:163-178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.