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Fear of Appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The Role of the Chinese Renminbi

  • Victor Pontines
  • Reza Y. Siregar

The study brings into light the evidence of a fundamental role of the Chinese renminbi in shaping the exchange rate behaviour of other major Asian currencies. The results obtained suggest that there is an additional dimension to the ‘fear of appreciation’ or ‘fear of floating-in-reverse’ behaviour, initially coined by Levy-yeyati and Sturzenegger (2007) with regard to the cases of these major Asian currencies. In particular, it is found that there is a greater degree of aversion to appreciation of these same Asian currencies, specifically, the Philippine peso and the Thailand baht against the renminbi than against the US dollar. This heightened fear of appreciation against the Chinese currency confirms that trade competition indeed matters in this part of the world and that the fear continues to play a central role in the exchange rate management behaviour of major Asian currencies. This is understandable as the rising role of China as a major trading hub in the region as well as globally, renders greater influence to the renminbi on the rest of the currencies in the region.

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This book is provided by South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre in its series Staff Papers with number sp78 and published in 2010.
Handle: RePEc:sea:spaper:sp78
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  12. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
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  14. Roberta Colavecchio & Michael Funke, 2007. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures markets," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20708, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  15. William H. Branson & Conor N. Healy, 2005. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in ASEAN 1," NBER Working Papers 11713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Pontines, Victor & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2011. "Foreign exchange market intervention and reserve accumulation in emerging Asia: Is there evidence of fear of appreciation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 252-255, June.
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