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Fear of appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The role of the Chinese renminbi


  • Pontines, Victor
  • Siregar, Reza Y.


Our study brings into light evidence of the important role of the Chinese renminbi in shaping the exchange rate behavior of a select group of East Asian currencies. Results obtained suggest that there is an additional dimension to the ‘fear of appreciation’ or ‘fear of floating-in-reverse’ behavior, initially coined by Levy-Yeyati and Sturzengger (2007) with regard to the experiences of this group of East Asian currencies. In particular, we find that there is a greater degree of aversion to appreciation of these East Asian currencies—specifically, the Philippine peso and the Thailand baht—against the Chinese renminbi than against the US dollar. This heightened fear of appreciation against the Chinese currency confirms that trade competition matters in this part of the world and that this fear to appreciate plays a central role in the exchange rate management of major East Asian currencies. As envisaged, the increasing role of China as a major trading hub in the region as well as globally, implies that the Chinese renminbi would exert a growing significant influence on other currencies in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2012. "Fear of appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The role of the Chinese renminbi," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 324-334.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:324-334 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2012.03.005

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    2. Siregar, Reza & Miyaki, Keita, 2013. "Regional Financial Arrangement: An Impetus for Regional Policy Cooperation," MPRA Paper 51050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Konstantins Benkovskis & Julia Wörz, 2016. "Non-price competitiveness of exports from emerging countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 707-735, September.
    4. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    5. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
    6. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Victor Pontines & Richard Pomfret, 2014. "Exchange rate policy and regional trade agreements: a case of conflicted interests?," Chapters,in: A World Trade Organization for the 21st Century, chapter 7, pages 157-181 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. repec:wsi:ceprxx:v:03:y:2014:i:01:n:s1793969014500022 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rodrigo Taborda, 2013. "Bias in Economic News: The Reporting of Nominal Exchange Rate Behavior in Colombia," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2013), pages 103-153, August.
    10. Victor Pontines & Richard Pomfret, 2014. "Exchange rate policy and regional trade agreements: a case of conflicted interests?," Chapters,in: A World Trade Organization for the 21st Century, chapter 7, pages 157-181 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Kefei You, 2016. "Exchange Rate Linkages between the ASEAN Currencies, the US Dollar and the Chinese RMB," CESifo Working Paper Series 5995, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Keddad, Benjamin, 2016. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," MPRA Paper 83782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Andrew Filardo, 2012. "Ensuring price stability in post-crisis Asia: lessons from the recovery," BIS Working Papers 378, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Vincent C.S. Lim & Victor Pontines, 2012. "Global Imbalances: A Primer," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp86.
    15. Volz, Ulrich, 2013. "RMB internationalisation and currency co-operation in East Asia," Working Papers 125, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

    More about this item


    Asymmetrical exchange rate regime; East and Southeast Asia; Regime switching models; E58; F31; F41;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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