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Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in ASEAN 1

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  • William H. Branson
  • Conor N. Healy

Abstract

This paper develops the basis for monetary and exchange rate coordination in Asia as part of a package of monetary integration that could support growth and poverty reduction. This could be achieved directly through coordinated exchange rate stabilization, and indirectly through the implications of this for reserve pooling and investment in an Asian development fund (ADF) and through development of the Asian bond market (ABM). Macro policy coordination could be viewed as a necessary condition for further development of both reserve pooling via the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and of the ABM. The paper analyzes the trade structure of ASEAN and China in terms of both geographic sources of imports and markets for exports, and of the commodity structure of trade. The similarities of the geographic and commodity trade structures across the region are consistent with adoption of a common currency basket for stabilization, and with an argument for monetary integration across the region along the lines of Mundell (1961) on optimum currency areas. The paper constructs currency baskets and real effective exchange rates (REERs) for the countries in the region. Since their trade patterns are quite similar and their policies are already implicitly coordinated, their REERs tend to move together. This means that ASEAN and China are already moving toward integration in practical effect. Explicit movement toward coordination could support surveillance and reserve-sharing under the CMI, and release reserves to be invested in an ADF.

Suggested Citation

  • William H. Branson & Conor N. Healy, 2005. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in ASEAN 1," NBER Working Papers 11713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11713
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haruhiko Kuroda & Masahiro Kawai, 2002. "Strengthening Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 332, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    4. Richard J. Sweeney (ed.), 2005. "Foreign Exchange Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2558, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    2. Fritz, Barbara & Mühlich, Laurissa, 2007. "South-south monetary integration: the case for a research framework beyond the theory of optimum currency area," Discussion Papers 2007/20, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Hiroshi Fujiki & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 57-100, December.
    4. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    5. Barbara Fritz & Laurissa Mühlich, 2006. "Regional Monetary Integration among Developing Countries: New Opportunities for Macroeconomic Stability beyond the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas?," GIGA Working Paper Series 38, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    6. Khmelevskaya, Natalia, 2015. "Russia’s Trade Policy Priorities in the Orbit of BRICS Economic Cooperation," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 93-109.
    7. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2012. "Fear of appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The role of the Chinese renminbi," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 324-334.
    8. Chaipat Poonpatpibul & Surach Tanboon & Pornnapa Leelapornchai, 2006. "The Role of Financial Integration in East Asia in Promoting Regional Growth and Stability," Working Papers 2006-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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