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What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

  • Dong He

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Laurent Pauwels

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

In this paper, we model the policy stance of the People¡¦s Bank of China (PBoC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBoC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBoC's implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets figured significantly in PBoC's policy changes, but not output gaps.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0806.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0806
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  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  2. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Michael J. Dueker, 1999. "Measuring monetary policy inertia in target Fed funds rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 3-10.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1999. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1223, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
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  7. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  8. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2007. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 2-41, March.
  9. Bernard Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Geiger, Michael, 2006. "Monetary Policy in China (1994-2004) : Targets, Instruments and their Effectiveness," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 68, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
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  12. Hu, Ling & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2004. "Nonstationary discrete choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 103-138, May.
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