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What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

Author

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  • Dong He

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Laurent Pauwels

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

In this paper, we model the policy stance of the People¡¦s Bank of China (PBoC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBoC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBoC's implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets figured significantly in PBoC's policy changes, but not output gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong He & Laurent Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," Working Papers 0806, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    2. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2014. "The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China: A Discrete Choice Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-12, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. He, Dong & Wang, Honglin, 2012. "Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 928-947.
    4. He, Dong & Luk, Paul, 2017. "A Model Of Chinese Capital Account Liberalization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(08), pages 1902-1934, December.
    5. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    6. Dong He & Honglin Wang & Xiangrong Yu, 2015. "Interest Rate Determination in China: Past, Present, and Future," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 255-277, December.
    7. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Dong He & Honglin Wang, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in China - Evidence from Loan-Level Data," Working Papers 162013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Inflation and China's monetary policy reaction function: 2002-2013," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 159-170 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2017. "China's evolving monetary policy rule: from inflation-accommodating to anti-inflation policy," BIS Working Papers 641, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "What measures Chinese monetary policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 263-286.
    12. Körner, Finn Marten & Ehnts, Dirk H., 2013. "Chinese monetary policy – from theory to practice," MPRA Paper 44264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
    14. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
    15. Klingelhöfer, Jan & Sun, Rongrong, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Central Banks and Financial Stability: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 79033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    17. Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 182014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    18. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:32-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    20. Dong He, 2014. "Comments on Eric Girardin, Sandrine Lunven and Guonan Ma's paper," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 171-174 Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Xiong, Qiyue, 2013. "The role of the bank lending channel and impacts of stricter capital requirements on the Chinese banking industry," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    22. Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "A Narrative Indicator of Monetary Conditions in China," MPRA Paper 64166, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; People's Bank of China; qualitative response models; large factor models;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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