What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model
In this paper, we model the policy stance of the People¡¦s Bank of China (PBoC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBoC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBoC's implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets figured significantly in PBoC's policy changes, but not output gaps.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 55th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central|
Web page: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, .
"A model for the federal funds rate target,"
Department of Economics
99-07, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oscar Jorda & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "A model for the federal funds rate target," Working Papers 997, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Bernard J Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China; Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001.
"A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
519, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997.
"A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1999.
"Nonstationary Binary Choice,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1223, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2007.
"A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China,"
CESifo Economic Studies,
CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 2-41, March.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2009. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Marvin S Goodfriend & Eswar S Prasad, 2006. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," IMF Working Papers 06/111, International Monetary Fund.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Michael J. Dueker, 1999. "Measuring monetary policy inertia in target Fed funds rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 3-10.
- Hu, Ling & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2004.
"Nonstationary discrete choice,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 103-138, May.
- Geiger, Michael, 2006. "Monetary Policy in China (1994-2004) : Targets, Instruments and their Effectiveness," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 68, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Chan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.