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Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Korea: An Ordered Probit Model Approach

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  • Hyeongwoo Kim

Abstract

We investigate the Bank of Korea's interest rate setting behavior using a discrete choice model, where the Monetary Policy Committee revises the target policy interest rate only when the gap between the current market interest rate and the optimal rate exceeds a certain threshold value. Using monthly frequency data since 2000, we evaluate an array of ordered probit models in terms of the in-sample fit. We find important roles for the output gap, inflation, and the won depreciation rate against the US dollar. We also implement out-of-sample forecast exercises with September 2008 (Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy) for a split point, finding good out-of-sample predictability of our models.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyeongwoo Kim, 2014. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Korea: An Ordered Probit Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2014-02
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    File URL: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2014/2014-02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2000. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1249-1280, September.
    3. Hu, Ling & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2004. "Nonstationary discrete choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 103-138, May.
    4. Hyeongwoo Kim & John Jackson & Richard Saba, 2009. "Forecasting the FOMC's interest rate setting behavior: a further analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 145-165.
    5. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Korea: Assessments and Policy Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 4676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Jahyun Koo & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2012. "The Bank of Korea's nonlinear monetary policy rule," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(12), pages 1193-1202, August.
    8. Kim, Sokwon & Seo, Byeongseon, 2008. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Reaction with Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences : Some Evidence for Korea," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 49(2), pages 91-108, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Bank of Korea; Ordered Probit Model; Target RP Rate; Interbank Call Rate; Taylor Rule;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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