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The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy

  • Greene, William H.
  • Gillman, Max
  • Harris, Mark N.
  • Spencer, Christopher

We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on inflated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle Inflated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a specification test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model affords the econometrician considerable flexibility with respect to modeling the impact of different forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our findings, we argue, reveal MPC members. asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates.

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File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/25891/1/wp2013-4.pdf
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Paper provided by Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series CEI Working Paper Series with number 2013-04.

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Length: 34, 14 p.
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2013-04
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  1. Allen, Stuart D & Bray, Jeremy & Seaks, Terry G, 1997. " A Multinomial Logit Analysis of the Influence of Policy Variables and Board Experience on FOMC Voting Behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(1-2), pages 27-39, July.
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. RIBONI, Alessandro & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2008. "Monetary Policy by Committee:Consensus, Chairman Dominance or Simple Majority?," Cahiers de recherche 2008-02, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
  8. Riboni, Alessandro & Ruge-Murcia, Francesco, 2008. "Preference Heterogeneity in Monetary Policy Committees," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7717, Paris Dauphine University.
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  10. Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2008. "Decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members," MPRA Paper 9100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-45, September.
  12. Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policymaking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 218-23, May.
  13. Dolado, Juan J & Maria-Dolores, Ramon, 2002. " Evaluating Changes in the Bank of Spain's Interest Rate Target: An Alternative Approach Using Marked Point Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 159-82, May.
  14. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Predicting Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Decisions with MPC Voting Records," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201322, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
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  16. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
  17. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, 06.
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  19. Davutyan, Nurhan & Parke, William R, 1995. "The Operations of the Bank of England, 1890-1908: A Dynamic Probit Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1099-1112, November.
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  21. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  22. Oscar Jorda & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "A model for the federal funds rate target," Working Papers 997, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
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  25. Robert Brooks & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2012. "Inflated Ordered Outcomes," Discussion Paper Series 2012_09, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Oct 2012.
  26. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2008. "Taking two steps at a time: On the optimal pattern of policy interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 550-570, February.
  27. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
  28. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
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  30. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
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  34. Swanson, Eric T., 2004. "Signal Extraction And Non-Certainty-Equivalence In Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 27-50, February.
  35. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
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