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The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China: A Discrete Choice Model Approach

Listed author(s):
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Wen Shi

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of key benchmark interest rates in China using an array of constrained ordered probit models for quarterly frequency data from 1987 to 2013. Specifically, we estimate the behavioral equation of the People's Bank of China that models their decision-making process for revisions of the benchmark deposit rate and the lending rate. Our findings imply that the PBC's policy decisions are better understood as responses to changes in inflation and money growth, while output gaps and the exchange rate play negligible roles. We also implement in-sample fit analyses and out-of-sample forecast exercises. These tests show robust and reasonably good performances of our models in understanding dynamics of these benchmark interest rates.

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File URL: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2014/2014-12.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Auburn University in its series Auburn Economics Working Paper Series with number auwp2014-12.

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Date of creation: Sep 2014
Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2014-12
Contact details of provider: Postal:
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Phone: (334) 844-4910
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Web page: http://cla.auburn.edu/economics/

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  7. Hu, Ling & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2004. "Nonstationary discrete choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 103-138, May.
  8. Hyeongwoo Kim & John Jackson & Richard Saba, 2009. "Forecasting the FOMC's interest rate setting behavior: a further analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 145-165.
  9. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
  10. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
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  13. Fan, Longzhen & Yu, Yihong & Zhang, Chu, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of China's monetary policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 358-371, June.
  14. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Kwang-Myoung Hwang, 2016. "Estimating interest rate setting behaviour in Korea: a constrained ordered choices model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(23), pages 2199-2214, May.
  15. He, Dong & Wang, Honglin, 2012. "Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 928-947.
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  17. Michael Geiger, 2008. "Instruments Of Monetary Policy In China And Their Effectiveness: 1994–2006," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 187, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  18. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
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  20. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta Kumar Mallick & Ricardo Magalhães Sousa, 2014. "Nonlinear monetary policy reaction functions in large emerging economies: the case of Brazil and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 973-984, March.
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  23. Koivu, Tuuli, 2009. "Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying credit demand in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 455-470, September.
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