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The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR

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  • Chen, Hongyi
  • Chow, Kenneth
  • Tillmann, Peter

Abstract

Analyzing monetary policy in China is not straightforward because the People's Bank of China (PBoC) implements policy by using more than one instrument. In this paper we use a Qual VAR, a conventional VAR system augmented with binary policy announcements, to extract a latent indicator of tightening and easing pressure, respectively, for China. The model acknowledges that policy announcements are endogenous and summarizes policy by a single indicator. The Qual VAR allows us to study the impact of monetary policy in terms of unexpected changes in these latent variables, which we identify using sign restrictions. We show that the transmission of monetary policy impulses to the rest of the economy is similar to the transmission process in advanced economies in terms of both output growth and inflation despite a very different monetary policy framework. We find that bank loans are not sensitive to policy changes, which implies that window guidance is still a necessary policy tool. We also find that the impact of monetary policy shocks is asymmetric in terms of asset prices, that is, the asset price reactions differ in their sensitivity to tightening shocks and easing shocks, respectively. In particular, an easing of monetary conditions boosts stock prices while a tightening shock leaves stock prices unaffected. This shows that monetary policy is not a suitable tool to stabilize asset prices, which raises implications for financial stability and macroprudential policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:216-231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty, 2018. "Do interest rates play a major role in monetary policy transmission in China?," BIS Working Papers 714, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Hongyi Chen & Ran Li & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "Pushing on a String: State-Owned Enterprises and Monetary Policy Transmission in China," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201806, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Monetary policy; Qual VAR; Transmission mechanism; Asset prices; Financial stability;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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