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A Narrative Indicator of Monetary Conditions in China

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  • Sun, Rongrong

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the narrative approach, studying the PBC's historical records, to infer policy-makers' intentions and thereby build a time series of monetary policy indicator. We show that our narrative policy indicator is informative about economic activity. Changes in it reflect the PBC's responses to its perceptions of economic conditions. It is a good indicator of monetary policy actions. Finally, we show that compared to monetary aggregates, changes in interest rates and the required reserve ratio are more associated with changes in monetary policy, as measured by our narrative indicator, but only to a limited degree. None of them alone can be a good proxy of policy indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "A Narrative Indicator of Monetary Conditions in China," MPRA Paper 64166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64166
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64166/1/MPRA_paper_64166.pdf
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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    5. Hamburger, Michael J, 1970. "Indicators of Monetary Policy: The Arguments and the Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 32-39, May.
    6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jefferson, Philip N, 1998. "Inference Using Qualitative and Quantitative Information with an Application to Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 108-119, January.
    8. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, June.
    9. Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21.
    10. Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "What measures Chinese monetary policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 263-286.
    11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    12. Hongyi Chen & Qianying Chen & Stefan Gerlach, 2011. "The Implementation of Monetary Policy in China: The Interbank Market and Bank Lending," Working Papers 262011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    13. Avery, Robert B., 1979. "Modeling monetary policy as an unobserved variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-311, August.
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    15. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," Working Papers 450, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. Boschen, John F & Mills, Leonard O, 1995. "The Relation between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 24-44, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "What measures Chinese monetary policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 263-286.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:32-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Angrick, Stefan & Naoyuki, Yoshino, 2018. "From window guidance to interbank rates : Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    the narrative-based policy indicator; quantitative policy measures; VAR; predictive power;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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