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Monetary Policy Announcements and Market Interest Rates’ Response: Evidence from China

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  • Sun, Rongrong

Abstract

This paper uses the event study to estimate the impact of various monetary policy announcements on market interest rates in China over the 2002-2017 period. I find that financial markets understand the quantitative signals better: the market response to an announced adjustment of the regulated retail interest rate and the required reserve ratio is positive and significant at all maturities of bond rates, but smaller at the long end of the yield curve. However, the market barely responds to announced changes in the qualitative policy stance index, which contains limited vague information and is easily anticipated. Two newly introduced central bank lending rates do not appear to be sufficient to replace the retail interest rate and the reserve ratio in guiding market rates in the post-deregulation era. My results suggest that the PBC adopts a publicly announced short-term interest-rate operating target regime, similar to the Fed’s federal funds rate target.

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  • Sun, Rongrong, 2018. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Market Interest Rates’ Response: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 87703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87703
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    2. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Klingelhöfer, Jan & Sun, Rongrong, 2019. "Macroprudential policy, central banks and financial stability: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 19-41.
    4. Lin, Jianhao & Mei, Ziwei & Chen, Liangyuan & Zhu, Chuanqi, 2023. "Is the People's Bank of China consistent in words and deeds?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2022. "The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 657-675, September.
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    7. Jianhe Wang & Mengxing Cui & Lei Chang, 2023. "Evaluating economic recovery by measuring the COVID-19 spillover impact on business practices: evidence from Asian markets intermediaries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1629-1650, June.
    8. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "The ECB's policy measures during the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers in Public Economics 207, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    9. Lin, Jianhao & Fan, Jiacheng & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Information Dissemination and the Monetary Policy Uncertainty Premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    10. Rongrong Sun, 2021. "Requiem for the interest rate controls in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 139-160, May.
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    12. Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Chen, Yong & Liu, Dingming & Zhuang, Ziguan, 2023. "The spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock: Evidence from B&R countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    14. Jing Zhang & Shuai Chen & Honglei Liu, 2022. "Central bank communication, shadow banking, and bank risk-taking: Theoretical model and PVAR empirical evidence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(9), pages 1-29, September.
    15. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2023. "How the PBoC´s new MLF affects the yield curve," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2023/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    16. Shieh, Harrison, 2024. "Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Oxana Afanasyeva & Dmitriy Korovin, 2020. "The impact of reserve requirements of central banks on macroeconomic indicators," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(1), pages 413-429, September.
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    Keywords

    announcement effect; event study; monetary policy; monetary transmission; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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