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Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy

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  • Funke, Michael
  • Shu, Chang
  • Cheng, Xiaoqiang
  • Eraslan, Sercan

Abstract

Renminbi internationalisation has brought about an active offshore market where the exchange rate frequently diverges from the onshore market. Using extended GARCH models, we explore the role of fundamentals, global factors and policies related to renminbi internationalisation in driving the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates. Differences in the liquidity of the two markets play an important role in explaining the level of the differential, while rises in global risk aversion tend to increase the differential's volatility. On the policy front, measures permitting cross-border renminbi outflows have a particularly discernible impact in reducing the volatility of the pricing gap between the two markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:59:y:2015:i:c:p:245-262
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.07.008
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    3. Yu-Lun Chen, 2020. "News announcements and price discovery in the RMB–USD market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1487-1508, May.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei & Zhu, Guozhong, 2017. "Is the Renminbi a safe haven?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 189-202.
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    6. Funke, Michael & Loermann, Julius & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market : Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Jying-Nan Wang & Jiangze Du & Chonghui Jiang & Kin-Keung Lai, 2019. "Chinese Currency Exchange Rates Forecasting with EMD-Based Neural Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, October.
    8. Lucía Cuadro-Sáez & Sonsoles Gallego, 2016. "Financial liberalisation in China: economic policy outlook and global implications," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue MAY, pages 1-14, May.
    9. Sercan Eraslan, 2019. "Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1653-1675, November.
    10. Dong He & Paul Luk & Wenlang Zhang, 2016. "Internationalisation of the Renminbi as an Investing and a Funding Currency: Analytics and Prospects," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 295-323, August.
    11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Andrew Tsang, 2016. "The Renminbi Central Parity: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 102016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Forecasting the CNY-CNH pricing differential: The role of investor attention," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Tsang, Andrew, 2018. "The RMB central parity formation mechanism: August 2015 to December 2016," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 223-243.
    14. Liao, Jia & Qian, Qi & Xu, Xiangyun, 2018. "Whether the fluctuation of China’s financial markets have impact on global commodity prices?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1030-1040.
    15. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Liu, Tao, 2014. "The onshore-offshore interaction of RMB market: a high-frequency analysis," MPRA Paper 63905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Liang, Yousha & Shi, Kang & Wang, Lisheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2019. "Fluctuation and reform: A tale of two RMB markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 30-52.
    18. Fengming Qin & Junru Zhang & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2018. "RMB Exchange Rates and Volatility Spillover across Financial Markets in China and Japan," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Qing, He & Korhonen, Iikka & Zongxin, Qian, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates and a single currency : The Chinese experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    20. Sun, Yuying & Bao, Qin & Zheng, Jiali & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "Assessing the price dynamics of onshore and offshore RMB markets: An ITS model approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    21. Ma, Xiuying & Yang, Zhihua & Xu, Xiangyun & Wang, Chengqi, 2018. "The impact of Chinese financial markets on commodity currency exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 186-198.
    22. Yin-Wong CheungAuthor-Workplace-Name: City University of Hong Kong & Matthew S. Yiu, 2016. "Offshore Renminbi Trading: Findings from the 2013 BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey," Working Papers 142016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    23. Eraslan, Sercan, 2017. "Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets," Discussion Papers 13/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    24. Du, Jiangze & Wang, Jying-Nan & Hsu, Yuan-Teng & Lai, Kin Keung, 2018. "The importance of hedging currency risk: Evidence from CNY and CNH," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 81-92.
    25. Kunze, Frederik & Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph & Spiwoks, Markus, 2018. "The emergence of the RMB: A "New Normal" for China's exchange rate system?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 348, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renminbi exchange rates; China; Onshore and offshore markets; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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