IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v49y2018icp232-247.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the CNY-CNH pricing differential: The role of investor attention

Author

Listed:
  • Han, Liyan
  • Xu, Yang
  • Yin, Libo

Abstract

As the exponential expansion in the international use of RMB, the issues concerning “one currency, two markets” have attracted increasing attentions from both policymakers and academics. We investigate the forecast power of investor attention for the CNY-CNH pricing differential. Investor attention displays statistically and economically significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of the CNY-CNH pricing gap at both weekly and monthly frequencies. Also, investor attention provides more useful information than macro variables for detecting the typical rise (decline) behavior near a CNY-CNH differential peak (trough). In addition, investor attention generates substantial economic values in asset allocation exercise. Moreover, we demonstrate that investor attention provides statistically and economically significant out-of-sample forecast for the CNY and CNH carry trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Forecasting the CNY-CNH pricing differential: The role of investor attention," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:49:y:2018:i:c:p:232-247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.05.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X17300689
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
    2. David K. Ding & Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2014. "The Price Discovery Puzzle in Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions for Different Contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 103-123, February.
    3. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813148543_0011 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2015. "Business Cycle Dynamics under Rational Inattention," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 1502-1532.
    5. Yuan, Yu, 2015. "Market-wide attention, trading, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 548-564.
    6. Goddard, John & Kita, Arben & Wang, Qingwei, 2015. "Investor attention and FX market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 79-96.
    7. Aggarwal, Raj & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "Psychological barriers in gold prices?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 217-230.
    8. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    9. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    10. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    11. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, August.
    14. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    15. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    16. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
    17. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
    18. Ludvigson, Sydney C. & Ng, Serena, 2007. "The empirical risk-return relation: A factor analysis approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 171-222, January.
    19. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
    20. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    21. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2733-2746, October.
    22. Vozlyublennaia, Nadia, 2014. "Investor attention, index performance, and return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-35.
    23. Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
    24. Jurek, Jakub W., 2014. "Crash-neutral currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 325-347.
    25. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    26. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    27. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    28. repec:eee:pacfin:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:211-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Merton, Robert C, 1987. " A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    30. Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2015. "The three-pass regression filter: A new approach to forecasting using many predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 294-316.
    31. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
    32. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    33. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    34. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    35. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    36. Bryan Kelly & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Market Expectations in the Cross-Section of Present Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1721-1756, October.
    37. Smith, Geoffrey Peter, 2012. "Google Internet search activity and volatility prediction in the market for foreign currency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 103-110.
    38. Ince, Onur, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates out-of-sample with panel methods and real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
    39. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    40. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Keijzer, Tjeert & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2006. "Linkages between extreme stock market and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 528-550, April.
    41. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
    42. Takeda, Fumiko & Wakao, Takumi, 2014. "Google search intensity and its relationship with returns and trading volume of Japanese stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-18.
    43. Tantaopas, Parkpoom & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2016. "Attention effect via internet search intensity in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 107-124.
    44. Wu, Qiongbing & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2014. "Investor attention, information diffusion and industry returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 30-43.
    45. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    46. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    47. Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher & Chen, Mei-Ling & Wu, An-Chi, 2014. "Characterizing information flows among spot, deliverable forward and non-deliverable forward exchange rate markets: A cross-country comparison," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-137.
    48. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
    49. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin & Seo, Sung Won, 2014. "Investor sentiment and return predictability of disagreement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-178.
    50. Lin, Mei-Chen & Wu, Chu-Hua & Chiang, Ming-Ti, 2014. "Investor attention and information diffusion from analyst coverage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 235-246.
    51. Yu, Jianfeng, 2013. "A sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 474-491.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:49:y:2018:i:c:p:232-247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.