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Investor attention, index performance, and return predictability

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  • Vozlyublennaia, Nadia

Abstract

We investigate a link between the performance of several security indexes in broad investment categories and investor attention as measured by Google search probability. We find that there is a significant short-term change in index returns following an increase in attention. Conversely, a shock to returns leads to a long-term change in attention. Given this evidence, we hypothesize that a change in index return or the sign of its return in the past can indicate the nature of the information that investors are paying attention to. Therefore, past returns should determine the impact of attention on the future returns and volatility. Indeed, we find significant interaction effects between lagged returns and attention. This result suggests that attention can alter predictability of index returns. Specifically, we demonstrate that increased investor attention diminishes return predictability and, therefore, improves market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Vozlyublennaia, Nadia, 2014. "Investor attention, index performance, and return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:17-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamid, Alain & Heiden, Moritz, 2015. "Forecasting volatility with empirical similarity and Google Trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 62-81.
    2. Ding, Zhihua & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Yuejun & Long, Ruyin, 2017. "The contagion effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese stock market investor sentiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 27-36.
    3. Byström, Hans, 2016. "Language, news and volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 139-154.
    4. repec:eee:eneeco:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:42-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Chen, Chen & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2016. "Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 203-225.
    6. Ronald MacDonald & Xuxin Mao, "undated". "An Alternative way of predicting the putcome of the Scottish Independence Referendum: the information in the Ether," Working Papers 2015_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Yung, Kenneth & Nafar, Nadia, 2017. "Investor attention and the expected returns of reits," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 423-439.
    8. Peltomäki, Jarkko & Vähämaa, Emilia, 2015. "Investor attention to the Eurozone crisis and herding effects in national bank stock indexes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 111-116.
    9. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Smeaton, Alan F., 2016. "Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 561-572.
    10. Jaroslav Bukovina, 2016. "Social Media and Capital Markets – an Overview," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-57, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    11. Ding, Rong & Hou, Wenxuan, 2015. "Retail investor attention and stock liquidity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 12-26.
    12. Bucher, Melk C., 2017. "Investor Attention and Sentiment: Risk or Anomaly?," Working Papers on Finance 1712, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    13. repec:bla:irvfin:v:16:y:2016:i:4:p:565-593 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Moussa, Faten & Delhoumi, Ezzeddine & Ouda, Olfa Ben, 2017. "Stock return and volatility reactions to information demand and supply," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 54-67.
    15. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:35-:d:108901 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fan, Xiaoqian & Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xintian & Jin, Xiu, 2017. "Long memory of abnormal investor attention and the cross-correlations between abnormal investor attention and trading volume, volatility respectively," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 323-333.
    17. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:17-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:399-411 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:eee:jimfin:v:80:y:2018:i:c:p:59-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:kap:apfinm:v:24:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10690-017-9228-z is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:644-660 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ronald MacDonald & Xuxin Mao, 2015. "An Alternative way of Predicting the Outcome of the Scottish Independence Referendum: The Information in the Ether," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-69, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    23. Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "Diffusion of optimistic and pessimistic investor sentiment: An empirical study of an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 22-34.
    24. Tantaopas, Parkpoom & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2016. "Attention effect via internet search intensity in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 107-124.
    25. repec:men:wpaper:57_2015 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor attention; Google search probability; Security index; Asset returns; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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