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Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Nikos Askitas
  • Klaus F. Zimmermann

Abstract

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data and exhibits a strong potential for the method used.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.99158.de/dp899.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 899.

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Length: 22 p.
Date of creation: 2009
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp899
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More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Google; internet; keyword search; search engine; unemployment; predictions; timeseries analysis;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
  • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
  • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
  • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Im Angesicht der Krise: US-Präsidentschaftswahlen in transnationaler Sicht," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(44), pages 688-701.
  2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Measuring unemployment with Google
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-07-01 08:02:00
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Cited by:
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This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. Economic Logic blog

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