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Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information

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  • Savor, Pavel G.

Abstract

This paper focuses on stocks that experience major price changes. Using analyst reports as a proxy, I find that price events accompanied by information are followed by drift, while no-information ones result in reversals. One interpretation of these results is that investors underreact to news about fundamentals and overreact to other shocks that move stock prices. Consistent with this hypothesis, information-based price changes are more strongly correlated with future earnings surprises than no-information ones. Furthermore, drift exists only when the direction of the price move and of the change in analyst recommendations have the same sign. Finally, the ratio of no-information to information-based price shocks is strongly correlated with aggregate implied volatility and also forecasts momentum returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:106:y:2012:i:3:p:635-659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.06.011
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    1. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Level shifts in stock returns driven by large shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-51.
    2. repec:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:49-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2016. "Contrarian and Momentum Profits during Periods of High Trading Volume preceded by Stock Prices Shocks," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 378-384.
    4. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:275-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Patel, Vinay & Michayluk, David, 2016. "Return predictability following different drivers of large price changes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 202-214.
    6. Ran Lu-Andrews & John L. Glascock, 2017. "Liquidity, Price Behavior, and Market-related Events," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 318-351, March.
    7. Peter Koudijs, 2013. "The boats that did not sail: Asset Price Volatility and Market Efficiency in a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 18831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bai, Min & Qin, Yafeng, 2015. "Short sales constraints and price adjustments to earnings announcements: Evidence from the Hong Kong market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 304-315.
    9. Jiang, George J. & Zhu, Kevin X., 2017. "Information Shocks and Short-Term Market Underreaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 43-64.
    10. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27.
    11. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dendramis, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Are regime-shift sources of risk priced in the market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 151-170.
    12. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2016. "Evaluating the costs of meat and poultry recalls to food firms using stock returns," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 66-77.
    13. Carlos Madeira & Joao Madeira, 2015. "Dissent in FOMC Meeting and the Announcement Drift," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 749, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. repec:eee:jbfina:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:152-165 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Predictability of stock returns; Information; Analyst reports; Momentum reversals;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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