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Assessing the CNH-CNY pricing differential: role of fundamentals, contagion and policy

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  • Michael Funke
  • Chang Shu
  • Xiaoqiang Cheng
  • Sercan Eraslan

Abstract

Renminbi internationalisation has brought about an active offshore market where the exchange rate frequently diverges from the onshore market. Using extended GARCH models, we explore the role of fundamentals, global factors and policies related to renminbi internationalisation in driving the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates. Differences in the liquidity of the two markets play an important role in explaining the level of the differential, while rises in global risk aversion tend to increase the differential's volatility. On the policy front, measures permitting cross-border renminbi outflows have a particularly discernible impact in reducing the volatility of the pricing gap between the two markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Funke & Chang Shu & Xiaoqiang Cheng & Sercan Eraslan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH-CNY pricing differential: role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," BIS Working Papers 492, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:492
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    renminbi exchange rates; China; onshore and offshore markets; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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