Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China
In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma--how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China's monetary policy as the country liberalizes its good and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth. We also estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China's reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth (consistent with limited sterilization of foreign exchange reserve accumulation) and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth such as that seen in late 2008 and 2009 lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007.
"Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1943, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2006. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," Working Papers 192006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "What has driven Chinese monetary policy since 1990? Investigating the People's bank's policy rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 847-859, September.
- Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010.
"China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
- Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005.
"The Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization,"
SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series
0518, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
- Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "THE CAPITAL INFLOWS PROBLEM IN SELECTED ASIAN ECONOMIES IN THE 1990s REVISITED : THE ROLE OF MONETARY STERILIZATION," Finance Working Papers 22562, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2008.
"Sterilization, monetary policy, and global financial integration,"
Working Paper Series
2008-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, 09.
- Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2008. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 13902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2005.
"Pegged exchange rate regimes -- a trap?,"
Working Paper Series
2006-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Vincent Bouvatier, 2006.
"Hot money inflows in China : How the people's bank of China took up the challenge,"
Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques
bla06011, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot Money Inflows in China : How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00111153, HAL.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C & Taylor, Alan M., 2004.
"The Trilemma in History: Trade-offs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies and Capital Mobility,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay Shambaugh & Alan Taylor, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," International Finance 0407003, EconWPA.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Taylor, Alan M., 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4rq9v2rb, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C.Shambaugh & Alan M.Taylor, 2003. "The Trilemma in History:Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies,and Capital Mobility," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 94, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," NBER Working Papers 10396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007.
"The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations,"
in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 421-480
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Working Papers 11306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shang-Jin Wei & Eswar Prasad, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows; Patterns and Possible Explanations," IMF Working Papers 05/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004.
"Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers,"
Business School Working Papers
exchangerates, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1999. "Kicking the Habit: Moving from Pegged Rates to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C1-14, March.
- Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1994.
"Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
94-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael M., 2000. "Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 229-247, December.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Gerlach & Janet Kong, 2005. "Money and Inflation in China," Working Papers 0504, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2006. "Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in emerging markets: what are the domestic implications?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley, 2003. "Opening China’s capital account amid ample dollar liquidity," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 25-34 Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:205-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.