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Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization


  • Tony Cavoli
  • Ramkishen S. Rajan


This paper develops a simple model to examine the reasons behind the capital inflow surges into selected Asian economies in the 1990s prior to the financial crisis of 1997-98. The analytical model shows that persistent uncovered interest differentials and consequent capital inflows may be a result of complete monetary sterilization, perfect capital mobility, sluggish response of interest rates to domestic monetary disequilibrium, or some combination of all three. Using the model as an organizing framework, the paper undertakes a series of related simple empirical tests of the dynamic links between international capital flows, the extent to which they are sterilized and uncovered interest rate differentials in the five crisis-hit economies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the period 1990:1-1997:5. Copyright 2006 East Asian Economic Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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  • Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 409-423, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:20:y:2006:i:4:p:409-423

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2000. "Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 284-314, June.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
    3. MacKellar, Landis & Woergoetter, Andreas & Woerz, Julia, 2000. "Economic Development Problems of Landlocked Countries," Transition Economics Series 14, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "How has regionalism in the 1990s affected trade?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2156, The World Bank.
    7. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
    8. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2014. "Globalisation, pass-through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 104-128.
    2. Nuttathum Chutasripanich & James Yetman, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention: strategies and effectiveness," BIS Working Papers 499, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2013. "An empirical study of nonlinear adjustment in the UIP model using a smooth transition regression model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-120.
    4. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2012. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 386-394.
    5. David Cook & James Yetman, 2012. "Expanding central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: a compendium of risk and some evidence," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 30-75 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:2:p:262-278 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    8. Gan, Pei-Tha, 2014. "The precise form of financial integration: Empirical evidence for selected Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-219.
    9. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.

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