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Esquemas Cambiarios y Monetarios Alternativos en un Modelo de Interdependencia Macroeconómica entre Argentina y Brasil

  • Diego Nicolás Moccero

This paper presents a theoretical model of macroeconomic interdependence between Argentina and Brazil in which alternative monetary and exchange rate regimes are represented. Simulation exercises are carried out with the objective of giving some clues for the election of the most appropriate model for Argentina. The election criteria consists of minimizing the real GDP volatility and that of the CPI when shocks are produced. In the first case the favorite models are those of more exchange rate flexibility while in the second case it will be preferable a more rigid set up of exchange rate. If real GDP volatility matters as much as that of the CPI, then Dolarization achieves a good trade-off among both because it maintains stable dollar prices while eliminating a fluctuation source in the interest rate (and by this way in the GDP) like the devaluation risk. That advantage decreases when the importance of the devaluation risk falls against the default risk as a component of the interest rate and as the supply of non- tradables goods becomes more inelastic.

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File URL: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab/doc31.pdf
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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series Department of Economics, Working Papers with number 031.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:031
Contact details of provider: Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
Fax: 54-21-25-9536
Web page: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab.php

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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 1992. "Exchange Rates as Nominal Anchors," NBER Working Papers 4246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Genberg, Hans, 1989. " Exchange Rate Management and Macroeconomic Policy: A National Perspective," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 439-69.
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  4. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  8. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Benedikt Braumann, 2000. "Real Effects of High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 00/85, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June.
  11. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December.
  12. Elisabetta Falcetti & Luis Catão, 1999. "Determinants of Argentina's External Trade," IMF Working Papers 99/121, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency," NBER Working Papers 6821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. International Monetary Fund, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Working Papers 96/9, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Jorge M. Streb, 1996. "Currency Substitution, Capital Flight and Real Exchange Rates," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 113, Universidad del CEMA.
  19. Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 2000. "The Pros and Cons of Full Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 00/50, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Nadeem U. Haque & Kajal Lahiri & Peter J. Montiel, 1990. "A Macroeconometric Model for Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 537-559, September.
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