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Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade

Following the liberalization reforms of the late 80s and early 90s, several emerging market economies have experienced large and persistent trade deficits. This paper focuses on the Argentine experience, examining the extent to which trade imbalances in the 1990s resulted from income and relative price movements, as well as from shifts in foreign trade elasticities associated with structural changes. New estimates of export and import equations are presented using a broader set of variables than previous studies and distinguishing between intra and extra MERCOSUR trade. We find that considerable export sensitivity to world commodity prices, domestic absorption, and economic activity in Brazil, combined with a high income elasticity of imports, are key determinants of Argentina’s trade balance.

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Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): V (2002)
Issue (Month): (May)
Pages: 19-57

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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:5:y:2002:n:1:p:19-57
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  1. Caballero, R. & Corbo, V., 1988. "Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty And Exports: Multi-Country Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 1988_12, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Richard H. Clarida, 1992. "Cointegration, aggregate consumption, and the demand for imports: a structural econometric investigation," Research Paper 9213, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Ceglowski, Janet, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution in import demand," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 118-130, March.
  4. Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/140, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
  7. Leslie Lipschitz & Donogh McDonald, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness; A Clarification of Concepts, and Some Measurements for Europe," IMF Working Papers 91/25, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Pritchett, Lant & Sethi, Geeta, 1994. "Tariff Rates, Tariff Revenue, and Tariff Reform: Some New Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, January.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade," MPRA Paper 13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Giorgianni, Lorenzo & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1997. "Determinants of Korean Trade Flows and their Geographical Destination," CEPR Discussion Papers 1703, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  13. Lopez Murphy, Ricardo & Navajas, Fernando, 1998. "Domestic savings, public savings and expenditures on consumer durable goods in Argentina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 97-116, October.
  14. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1998. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows; Evidence From the European Union," IMF Working Papers 98/107, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Gonzaga, Gustavo M. & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 77-100, October.
  16. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
  17. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
  18. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
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